Wednesday, July 26, 2006

 

Armandogeddin' It

I ripped that title off of one of the posters at McCovey Chronicles. It was too good not to steal.

If the Giants were a parliamentary form of government, someone would be moving for a vote of "no confidence" in the Minister of Closure. This would be followed by a rousing good debate, complete with the minister issuing a long speech defending his record. Then the House of Giants would vote, and the minister would undoubtedly be sacked.

However, the Giants are not a parliament, so any decisions regarding the Hon. Benitez will have to be made without regard to popular debate or witty repartee. The Giants have to look at their options. Here's how I see these options:

Off with his pointy little head!! The most popular option among Giants fans -- designate Benitez for assignment, lock him in a closet, or take other drastic action to prevent Benitez from appearing in a Giants uniform again. This has two problems, as I see it: the Giants want to recoup as much of their multi-million dollar investment as they can. They're not an organization that operates on the "sunk costs" principle.

The second problem: who exactly is going to replace Benitez? No obvious candidate stands out. It's been said that any average major-league pitcher will convert about 80% of the save chances he gets. Only the rare elites top 90%. Benitez is currently at 13/19, or 68%. If you accept the 80% figure, your average pitcher would have saved 15 out of 19. (That's more a statement on the ridiculousness of the save stat than a slight on the average pitcher.)

Is Brian Wilson an average pitcher, for these purposes? Was Jeremy Accardo? Probably. Is Armando Benitez, over the course of the rest of the season, an average pitcher for this purpose? Therein lies the question. Benitez's potential is that of a superior (though not quite elite) closer -- see his work in 2004 for a recent example. Do you switch to an unproven guy and hope for average, or stick with the "proven" guy, and hope for better than that? Putting it differently: do you think that Benitez is recovering from a slump, or sliding into the abyss?

I don't think the Giants are going to simply dump him, for all these reasons.

Trade him! I haven't heard anyone talk much about this option. What if you could trade Benitez now and recover some or all of his remaining salary? Would anyone even take him? Maybe a challenge trade along the lines of Finely-Alfonzo? This would be preferable to DFAing Benitez, but it still begs the question of who will replace him, and to what result. The odds of this actually happening is next to zero, I think.

Go stand in the corner and think about what you've done! Otherwise known as "hedging your bets." Keep Benitez, but remove him from the closer's role for a while. Obviously, he has command issues to work out, and confidence issues as well. At the risk of permanently offending the man, drop him into the 7th or 8th inning and let him work out his problems in a lower-stress environment.

This has two likely outcomes: either he gets better, or he doesn't. If he comes around, give him the closing job back. If Benitez's replacement turns into the second coming of Robb Nen, well, that's a lovely problem to have. More likely, the new closer will be average at best. If Benitez doesn't improve, then you can look to trading him in the offseason for a six-pack or something. The Giants have discussed doing this before, and might just try it.

Grit your teeth, cross your fingers, and pray. That is to say: do nothing. Continue to let Benitez work it out, because you don't have that obvious replacement, don't want to flush away any progress Benitez might make, or think that demoting him would crush him psychologically. This is the likely path the Giants will choose. Benitez is regaining velocity on his pitches nicely. He lacks command and confidence. By keeping him as the closer, you're giving him the mental support he seems to need. This is a high-risk option, but then again, so are the others.

It's not an easy call, all things considered.

Jefferson 9:03 PM

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