Tuesday, June 28, 2005

 

Thinking Schmitty Thoughts

Jason Schmidt takes the mound tonight for the Giants. He brings with him deep questions. Colossal questions of momentous import that concern, basically, the whole fabric of our culture. Are his last two very good starts a sign that the Cy Young caliber Schmidt is back for good? Or is this just a temporary reprieve, to be followed by long years of wildness, suckitude and "whatever happened to" obscurity?

The biggest question of all was only a whisper a few weeks ago. It was a joke, told by sadistic wags who wanted to see their Giants-fan friends cringe. Now, it's being asked out loud, in front of polite company.

Are the Giants going to trade Jason Schmidt? More to the point, why would they?

Two reasons come to mind: money and skill. In 2006, the Giants are going to either buy out Schmidt's contract for $3.5 million, or pay him $10.5 million to pitch for them. For the rest of 2005, the Giants are on the hook for over $4 million. If the dominant Schmidt is gone for good, then that's $7.5 million in the toilet. Not only is that a lot of money to flush away, but that toilet's going to jam up something fierce.

On the other hand, what if Schmidt really has turned the corner? They would get a season and a half of Cy Young for $14.5 million. That's a bargain, you would think.

Let me roll out a hypothetical for you. It's 2006. Let's say Barry Bonds is effectively done. No more Superman; instead, we get a replay of Willie McCovey's last season or two. Alou, Vizquel, Alfonzo, Durham and Snow all get a year older, and a year worse. Ellison, Niekro, and Linden don't pan out. Feliz...well, stays Feliz. (Don't tell me that's impossible, either--you've seen as many Giants hitting prospects flame out as I have.) Or maybe Sabean makes some trades, but his magic touch is still backfiring. You think this year is bad? Sure, we have SuperSchmidt every fifth day. Unfortunately, the phrase that comes to mind is "lipstick on a pig." After '06, Schmidt is a free agent, and do you think he will want to hang around?

So maybe you can see why it's not so crazy to trade him now, and get some more pieces for a rebuilding effort.

All right, we trade Schmidt. What is our rotation for 2006? Lowry, Foppert, and...um...right. Maybe Cain is ready to come up next year, and maybe you can push up Valdez. Yikes. Maybe trading Schmidt would be crazy after all!

The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but the pitching is especially heinous. The team ERA is 5.19, which is a cry for help if I've ever seen one. Whatever they decide to do with Schmidt, should be part of a thoughtful plan to rebuild the pitching staff. If the Orioles come calling, offering their best three pitching prospects (I assume they have some that don't suck...I could be wrong) for Schmidt, and the Giants don't have to throw in cash? I'd take that call. Hell, I'd probably lay down a red carpet. Sure, 2006 would be a total rebuilding year, but the organization needs one.

Sabean is not the type to give up on 2006 this far in advance, though. He has a goal, either dictated from on high or derived from his own ethos, to have the Giants poised to contend each year. Trading Schmidt, I believe, would be too much of a surrender for Sabean to stomach. More likely, he'll try to trade the less valuable veterans (Durham, Alfonzo, Matheny) and try to restock with free agents again this winter.

Days until the trading deadline: 33.

Jefferson 2:19 PM

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Monday, June 27, 2005

 

Stewing In Our Own Juices

Of all the stupid times to have a day off. This is easily the worst day off in San Francisco Giants history.

You know that there are 25 players, a manager, several coaches, a general manager, various assistants, and at least a dozen bloggers who are thinking of nothing but yesterday's massacre. On the plane ride to Arizona, they were thinking about it. On the bus to the hotel, they were thinking about it. In a darkened hotel room at 3:35 a.m., they were laying awake thinking about it. (Except for Tomko, who might very well have been passed out from a drinking binge--I mean, that's what I would have done.)

The only way to forget about this one is to get back on the ballfield and beat somebody. Anybody. Right now, you can bet the Giants' team bus is roaming around suburban Phoenix. Everyone is in full uniform, gear ready. They're just looking for someone to play. Little League team, high school team, it doesn't matter. They need a tonic to wash the bad taste out, and they need it now.

Unfortunately, they'll have to wait another 30 hours or so for a real game. It'll be the longest 30 hours of their lives, don't you think?

Jefferson 2:00 PM

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Sunday, June 26, 2005

 

Ouch

So, this is what we won't know for a couple of weeks.

This weekend, did the Giants finally give up? Did Alex Sanchez suck all the skill out of them? Or did they cross into the baseball Twilight Zone, as sometimes happens?

Weird stuff happens in baseball. Just look at that Devil Rays-Yankees series a week ago. How about that 20-11 game? Great Yankees comeback, and a harbinger of a turnaround, right? Wrong. The Yankees lost the next four, including two to the very same Devil Rays. It was just one of those weirdass games that we all love. But it didn't mean squat.

In Game 5 of the 2002 World Series, the Giants pummelled the Angels, 16-4. It sure looked like the Angels were totally overmatched, with no chance to win. But that wasn't true. It was just one of those games. Didn't mean a thing.

I suspect today's 16-0 humiliation of the Giants is another one of those games. Is it symbolic of the whole season? Sure. But is it the final, irrevocable collapse of the team for the season? Probably not.

However, in the vortex that was this weekend, with the sweep by the A's, more bad news on the Barry Bonds front, and the Alex Sanchez circus, a little panic would be understandable. But seriously, if the first 71 games of the year didn't already make you antsy, the last three shouldn't either.

Jefferson 10:29 PM

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Friday, June 24, 2005

 

The Truck

I hate to gloat. Ah hell, who am I kidding? I love to gloat. Didn't I say a few weeks ago that the roster was going to get overhauled, and it was time to back up the truck? Well, guess what. The U-Haul has made several trips already, though it's been cleverly disguised as a Coit cleaning crew. Twenty percent of the roster has changed since my last post:

* Al Levine (age 37, 1.94 WHIP, 9.58 ERA) was tossed into a burlap sack and heaved into the dump truck. It is unclear at this time if he was then beaten with switches or not. Taking his place: rookie Jack Taschner (age 27, 1.06 WHIP, 0.95 ERA with Fresno).

* Jim Brower (age 32, 1.77 WHIP, 5.94 ERA) was stripped of his commission and sent to the salt mines. Jesse Foppert (age 27, 1.16 WHIP, 4.40 ERA) came up and made two starts before ending up in the bullpen, effectively taking Brower's spot.

* Edgardo Alfonzo (estimated age 31, 306/370/403) injured his quadriceps, which caused Pedro Feliz to move back to third base. Taking Pedro's place in the outfield? Fresno slugger Todd Linden (age 24, 326/446/692 in Fresno).

* Marquis Grissom (age 38, 211/246/293) very conveniently continued to have a sore hamstring, or a hangnail, or something, and was shelved. Jason Ellison (age 27, 310/370/460) is the new starting center fielder, and Alex Sanchez (age 28, 346/373/466 in 133 AB) your backup.

* LaTroy Hawkins (age 32, 1.52 WHIP, 5.48 ERA) developed a numb pitching arm, which is also rather convenient. Replacing him, former Diamondback Brandon Puffer (age 29, 1.30 WHIP, 3.99 ERA in Fresno).

Younger guys, all around. Everyone has seen that much. Better guys all around? Maybe--time will tell. The thing you should note about all these moves is that they haven't cost the Giants anything. Sabean hasn't freaked out and shipped out more prospects for middle relievers. Instead, he's doing what he should have done in the first place--sort out his cards and play the best hand he has. Even Sanchez is effectively free, costing only about a quarter million for the rest of this year. Sabean isn't doing anything he might regret, leaving all his options open while still trying to improve the team in the short term.

The next step is to see if this hand is one to play, or one to fold. The answer might seem hard to read. The Giants have stopped the bleeding, but they haven't gained any ground either. The whole division is struggling, and it's tempting to think the Giants might actually come back.

Which leads us to Barry.

The one transaction Sabean and all Giants are dying to make is this: "Activated Barry Bonds, outfielder, from the 60-day disabled list. Released Marquis Grissom, outfielder." Nobody knows when Bonds will come back, how much he'll play, or how well he'll play. On the one hand, you don't want to sell your players off too soon, for fear that Barry comes back and rampages through the league once again. On the other hand, you don't want to stand pat, and then have Barry not be a factor, which would leave the Giants in much worse shape for 2006.

This is why Sabean is so carefully treading water. He has to wait on Bonds. I can understand if Bonds doesn't want to tell the media when he might be back. If he's keeping Sabean in the dark, too, he's really hurting the organization.

Of course, uncertainty is a part of any GM's job. Every trade and every move is filled with it. That's why, in the end, you have to play the percentages. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Giants have a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

Two. Freaking. Percent.

The Giants, therefore, are not done with the truck.

Jefferson 7:44 PM

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Saturday, June 04, 2005

 

Harsh Realities

The losing streak has reached eight. This has gone from an Excedrin headache to a goddamned Motrin & double shot of vodka migraine.

Let's assume that the Giants want to wait until the All-Star Break before they pull the plug on this persistent vegatative team. That's 34 games from now. Just to get back to .500, the Giants will need to go 21-13. To get to .550, which is really where they need to be to contend, they need to go 26-8.

Bonds won't be back until the All-Star Break, at the earliest. He can't save the team in time.

Back up the truck, boys.

Jefferson 1:39 PM

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Friday, June 03, 2005

 

Bright Spots

I'm trying to take my mind off of the big stat of the day (seven losses in a row). Maybe these items will help you forget the agony, too:

* Mike Matheny is tied for third in home runs among all major-league catchers this year. Matheny has 5 homers, trailing Piazza and Ramon Hernandez, who have six each. Matheny is on pace to shatter his career high of 8 homers in a year. His slugging percentage is currently .437; he's never finished a full season over .362.

* According to the Runs Created stat, Edgardo Alfonzo is the fourth most productive third baseman in the game this season. Imagine how good he'd be if he had some power.

* This one won't help. Runs Created for Omar Vizquel: 28.1, good for 7th in the NL; no homers. Neifi Perez: right behind him at 27.6 RC and 6 home runs. Wait, did that say six home runs for Neifi? It did. More evidence of pods. Damn.

* Moises Alou in 2004: .293/.361/.557. Moises Alou in 2005: .279/.401/.527. Yeah, it was all Wrigley Field.

* Scott Eyre is over a strikeout per inning this season. He hasn't done that since 2001 when he was with Toronto. Last year he came close, hitting a K/9 of 8.37.

* Intentional walks for Bonds so far this year: zero.

Jefferson 11:46 AM

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Wednesday, June 01, 2005

 

Plugging Holes

The fear is palpable. On every street around the Bay, you see nothing but furrowed brows and nervous sweating. At least twice a day some panicked fanatic asks me, "Is this the end? Is there anything that can be done? By God, someone should do something." All I can do is pat them on the back and tell them to draw the blinds and wait for further word.

The truth hurts, and I don't like to be the one wielding the hammer.

I know you can handle it, though. You've been there those other times, and seen the disasters. The one in '85 was the worst, but '92 and '96 were pretty bad too. Crappy teams, boring teams, teams no one could save.

This '05 could be one of those.

Sabean ain't going down without a fight, though. This hurts him as much as it hurts us. That's why he shipped poor Jerome and that Aardsma guy off to Chicago to get Hawkins. Then he dumped Herges. I can't say as I blame him.

We all like Jerome. Nice kid, loads of talent. We've seen the likes of him a million times in these parts. The sophomore slump wastes most of them. In the end, they end up vagabonds, pitching for whoever will buy them a drink or a cup of coffee. I hope Jerome doesn't end up like that, but my spies in Fresno think it's a vain hope.

Hawkins is supposed to hold down those 8th-inning leads for us. Great. Let me know when we get them more than twice a week. So far, the boys have played 50 games. In 25 of those, they have led the game, or been in a tie, after seven innings. Their record in those games is 20-5. Not great, but not a disaster either.

The big problem is on the flip side. In games where they trail after seven, the Giants are 3-22. To protect that lead late in the game, you have to get it in the first place. The Giants do that less than half the time, and it's because they can't hit, and the pitching has regressed.

Here's the ugly numbers:

2004 -- 5.24 runs scored per game, 4.29 total ERA
2005 -- 4.40 runs scored per game, 4.68 total ERA

Look at that offense. It's anemic. Missing Bonds is part of it. Bonds might actually get back this year, but will he be any good? You can't count on it. I wouldn't, if I were Sabean. Getting Hawkins is a nice little move, but the Giants need some spectacular big moves if they want to turn this season around. If they can't, they need to make some spectacular big moves to stock up for next season, and the season after that.

You get what I'm trying to say? I know it's hard.

Say bye-bye to this roster. One way or another, it's going away, and soon.

Jefferson 12:25 PM

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