Thursday, September 30, 2004

 

Pain

"A lot of people in the bullpen were yelling at him not to catch the ball, " reliever Wayne Franklin said. "But maybe he thought it was going to stay fair. That's just salt on an open wound." (SF Chronicle)

It's not really fair to obsess over the last play of last night's cataclysmic loss to the Padres. It's not really fair to kick Dustan Mohr when he's down, and probably out for months. Yet the play that ended last night's game, and possibly the Giants' postseason hopes, encapsulates so much that is wrong with this team.

So I'm gonna do some kicking.

This was a game the Giants deserved to win for the first nine innings. Clutch relief pitching and stellar defense showed that the team was poised to take full advantage of the Cubs loss. Then overtime rolled around, and everything went astray. In the top of the tenth, Felipe Alou had J.T. Snow bat for Scott Eyre--good move. Then he had Ricky Ledee pinch-hit for Cody Ransom--okay, I can see that, even though Ledee has sucked. So we're replacing the pitcher and the second baseman. And since it's extra innings, I figured J.T. Snow would stay in the game and play first. Maybe Feliz goes to second.

But no--Alou leaves Feliz in at first base, and Snow is out of the game. That's a huge hit on defense, and it killed the Giants in the bottom of the tenth. If Snow is playing first in the bottom of the 10th, you have to figure at least one of those two errors doesn't happen. You have to figure Dustan Mohr won't be in the position of having to make that catch under tremendous pressure.

But he was, and he did. But everyone who was watching the game was screaming at Mohr to let that ball drop foul. Everyone knew it was a bad play to try to catch it. Leave the bullpen mound out of it for a minute. Let's look at the facts:

* Kerry Robinson, the runner at third, is VERY fast.
* Mohr's momentum was taking him at an angle that was parallel to the plate. He would have had to turn and make a throw, costing him a precious split second.
* The throw to Torrealba would have come from the first base line. Yorvit would have had to catch the ball turned away from the runner, then turned to make the tag. Advantage runner.

Catching the ball in foul territory was a VERY low-percentage play. The bullpen, the announcers, the fans at home, all saw it, all yelled at Mohr to let it drop. But he didn't pay attention.

He didn't pay attention.

That is the defining characteristic of Mohr on defense. He's the kind of guy who forgets to flip down his sunglasses when he's fielding a high pop-up in the sun. He's the kind of guy who takes his eye off the ball because he's thinking about making the throw afterward. He's NOT the kind of guy who's thinking ahead and anticipating what play he needs to make if the fly ball is arcing into foul territory. He's NOT the kind of guy who's going to know where that bullpen mound is.

And unfortunately, he paid a very heavy price, and so did the Giants.

Mohr's brain lock--and let's face it, if your bullpen is yelling at you to let it drop and you don't listen, it's a brain lock--is the very symbol of what's wrong with this year's roster. There's a good amount of athletic ability to be had, but big gaps in their awareness, concentration, and mental approach to the game.

Give this team enough innings or enough chances, and they will barf it up. It's only a question of when. This is fine when the Giants have a good lead, but it's the downfall in close games. The Giants are now 18-25 in one-run games. Some of that is luck, of course. "Luck is the residue of design," as Branch Rickey used to say. By not being mentally prepared and ready for these close situations, the Giants have made their own bad luck.

Brian Sabean knows all this, trust me. He's taking notes. This kind of play is not what he was aiming for. Sabean's teams have been marked by athletics and character. Good athletes with epxerience who make smart decisions when the game is on the line. Don't be surprised if he shakes this roster up in a major way in the off-season.

Despite everything, the Giants still control their own destiny. (Maybe that's not such a good thing, considering all the points I've just made.) All they have to do is win their last 4 games to make the playoffs, or at least have a one-game shot at getting in. They don't need any help. It's not too late. Just making the postseason would be a major, major accomplishment for this team. I'd like to see it happen, even though I know they have no chance at winning the World Series. I'd like to see it happen.

Jefferson 7:20 AM

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Wednesday, September 29, 2004

 

Rays of Hope

Today Major League Baseball made the announcement: the Expos will play in Washington D.C. in 2005. Tonight will be the final home game in the city of Montreal.

I can't help but remember a day in 1992, about this time of year. The Giants were playing in Candlestick Park. Bob Lurie, their owner, had given up trying to get the city to build him a new ballpark. Several ballot measures had failed, both in San Francisco and San Jose. Lurie had put the team up for sale, and had reached an agreement with a group in St. Petersburg, Florida. It was, as best as anyone could tell, a done deal. In 1993 they would be the Tampa Bay Giants.

I don't remember who won that game, but I do recall after the game that the Giants players went around the edge of the field, shaking hands with the fans. There weren't a ton of fans there, as I recall, but they were loud and gave the team a standing ovation. They understood that the team was gone, that San Francisco had apparently done everything possible to push them out of town. They didn't blame Bob Lurie, or the Giants. And certainly not the players.

I remember just being sad and resigned. This was towards the end of my brief flirtation with being an Oakland A's fan, from about 1988 to 1990. When I was really young, I loved the Giants best of all. I remembered that as I watched the players bid the city farewell, and I regretted that I had missed the last few years of the Giants' existence.

Then a funny thing happened on the way to Florida. The deal wasn't really done. The National League owners, in a rare show of sense, rejected the move, thus killing the deal. A local group of investors appeared, led by Peter McGowan. They bought the Giants, they signed Barry Bonds, and they stayed. In April 1993, the Giants played in Candlestick Park again. It was a miracle. Not often enough do I look out at the Giants playing at SBC Park and pinch myself. I am incredibly lucky to still have my team, and to get a second chance to love them again.

To the fans in Montreal, Quebec, I can only say this: miracles can happen. This deal with D.C. is contingent on a few things that just might fall apart. Show up tonight to the Big O, rock that stadium to its foundation, and show Selig how terribly wrong he's been about you all this time. Sure, you've been staying away, steeling yourself against the loss. But keep in the back of your mind--maybe this isn't the end after all.

But if it is--farewell to my second favorite team, the uncrowned champions of baseball in 1994.

*********************************

In Giants news, the Cubs lost again today. The Giants once again control their own destiny in the NL Wild Card race. Now they just need to win. I've written this team off a million times, but it is not over yet. There is still hope, even if I can't quite embrace it completely.

Go Noah Lowry, go Barry Bonds, and go Giants!

Jefferson 3:55 PM

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Tuesday, September 28, 2004

 

Hermanson Suspended

Dustin Hermanson has been suspended for three games for intentionally plunking Jeff Kent last week.

He is appealing the suspension and won't begin serving until the appeal is done. If he ends up missing the last games of this season, especially if the Giants are still in it, then Dustin Hermanson has nominated himself for Giant Knucklehead of the Year. (Other current nominees are A.J. Pierzynski and Dustan Mohr.)

Jefferson 3:32 PM

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Goodbye, Montreal Expos

The death certificate for the Expos is just about to be signed. In a matter of days, Major League Baseball's first Canadian team will be no more. The Expos will be packed into a rusty U-Haul and unceremoniously dumped into the District of Columbia. There, they will undoubtedly lose the Expos name, lose the classy logo, and colors, the history. Now that Selig and MLB have wrung every possible drop of misery and lucre from the transaction, they will finally put the Expos down.

But it won't end there. There is already one lawsuit against MLB on this subject, brought by the former minority owners of the Expos. There might be another from Orioles owner Peter Angelos. There might not be enough time to get RFK Stadium up to MLB standards by Opening Day--not that the Expos would notice any difference. They're moving the team before they sell it, thereby losing any leverage they might have by selling to a wide variety of bidders. They're banking on a stadium deal from a City Council that may be voted out of office before next season.

Believe it or not, this move could be the beginning of a whole new set of troubles for the franchise. Don't be at all surprised if the "Expos question" is still high on MLB's list in two or three years.

For a nice, detailed, viterupative summary of how badly baseball has screwed the city of Montreal, please check out this article by John Brattain.

And goodbye, Montreal Expos. You will be missed.

Jefferson 9:27 AM

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Monday, September 27, 2004

 

It's Only A Flesh Wound!

"I'm not dead yet!"

Monty Python fans know what happened to that guy, and I think we all know what's going to happen to the badly wounded Giants. Six games left, all on the road, all against the two teams who have played us the toughest this year. I think 3-3 is the best we can reasonably hope for. That means the Cubs need to go 2-5 in their last seven for us to win the wild card, and the Astros have to not go 4-2 or better.

Problem is, the Cubs get their final seven games at home. Four are against the lousy Reds, and the last three are against a Braves team who will be resting up for the NLDS. Sure, the Cubs have been playing like they don't want the wild card either. But all other things being equal, the Cubs have a much easier road ahead of them.

Houston has six games left, all at home. Three versus the mighty Cards, and three against the pathetic Rockies. If the Cards rest and reset their rotation for the NLDS, Houston could get a couple games against them.

Bottom line: technically, the Giants are not dead yet. But the bleeding is profuse, the doctor is all liquored up, and the vultures are circling.

I guess I'll have more time to watch the NHL in October this year....what? Locked out? NOOOOOOOOO!

Jefferson 11:35 AM

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Friday, September 24, 2004

 

This Is It

For the San Francisco Giants, the playoffs effectively start tonight.

Last night's loss was huge, and puts them in a deeper hole than they needed to be in. Here's the situation now: The Giants are 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. They are 0.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs in the wild card race.

There are only nine games left, and six of those are against the Dodgers. If the Giants win enough of those nine games to make the playoffs, that means they'll have beaten the Dodgers enough to win the division. The wild card is now, for most scenarios, irrelevant.

Here are the possible outcomes of the remaining 6 games with the Dodgers:

Giants win all 6: Giants will lead NL West by 4.5 games and win the division outright, regardless of the outcome of the Padres games.

Giants win 5 of 6: Giants will lead NL West by 2.5 games, and will win the division outright with any combination of 2 wins over the Padres, or 2 Dodgers losses to the Rockies.

Giants win 4 of 6: Giants will lead NL West by 0.5 games. Even if they sweep the Padres also, the Giants will need the Dodgers to lose one against the Rockies. Alternately, if the Dodgers get swept by Colorado, the Giants win the NL West. Any other combination of 4 Giants wins vs. SD or Dodgers losses vs. COL will give the Giants the division.

Giants win 3 of 6: Giants will stay 1.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Giants would need a lot of help from the Rockies, who would have to win at least 2 of 4 against the Dodgers to keep the Giants in the division race. Even then, the Giants would need to sweep the Padres.

Giants win 2 of 6: The Giants still have a chance to tie the Dodgers for the NL West lead. But it requires that the Giants sweep the Padres, and the Rockies sweep the Dodgers.

Giants win 0 or 1 of 6: It would take a total Cubs collapse for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Bottom line: The Giants have to win this six-game split series against the Dodgers, and preferably win it big. They need to start by sweeping this weekend series at home. That's right, sweeping. The Giants play their last 6 on the road. They haven't played well against the Padres, in particular, so the Giants MUST put themselves in the catbirds seat before they arrive in San Diego.

It's a cliche, but the Giants have to treat each and every game as a must-win. They simply cannot afford another loss like last night's. To avoid Gagne, the Giants need to take early leads and then keeping adding on.

Like I said, if you're the Giants, your playoffs start tonight. Treat the following 9 games accordingly. And good luck, gentlemen.

Jefferson 7:49 AM

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Wednesday, September 22, 2004

 

Jeff Kent, A Man With Feelings

I know, there's a ton of Giants stuff going on right now, and I haven't posted a damn thing since before I went on vacation. Suffice to say that I'm not sure who the heck is occupying the Giants uniforms at the moment, but they're sure pitching, fielding, and running better than the gang I was watching back in August.

Tonight, I wanted to talk to Jeff Kent. Well, that isn't going to happen, but I wanted to write about his comments about being booed by the fans in San Francisco:

"I was disappointed. It hurt," Kent said. "I figured the boos for the first year, as being sarcastic. It's OK. I appreciated and respected the fans here, and I guess I expected it in return. I get booed in New York and all over. I thought I had a relationship with these folks. It's OK. They need us to lose."

Jeff Kent could have been, and for a time was, as beloved a Giant as anyone else. The whole identity of the Giants infield for me was Aurilia, Kent and Snow, up until last season when Kent left. Then Richie left, and I've been anything but shy in talking about my deep respect and affection for Rich Aurilia. On the other hand, I don't think I've had a single thing to say about Jeff Kent in this space. But let me now speak personally to him, after a fashion, and respond.

Jeff, you had a huge set of shoes to fill when you arrived. Matt Williams was one of those Giants who stayed a Giant no matter what uniform he ended up wearing. It wasn't fair to you that you were viewed as that nobody the new idiot general manager traded for. You had a tall job in winning over the fans, and I lot of guys couldn't have done it.

But you did. And you did it by playing your ass off, day after day, and turning into not only the best second basemen the Giants had had in decades, but maybe a Hall of Famer. Certainly an MVP. It took me a while to see it--my wife started pointing out to me how often you produced with men in scoring position. I started watching you carefully, and damned if she wasn't right. Before long I was calling you "Mr. RBI." When you came up, I'd tell my wife, "Look out! Here comes Mr. RBI!" And more often than not, you came through.

Two or three years later, I started telling people how you might just be the second coming of Rogers Hornsby. And I don't think I was full of it. You were that good.

And Giants fans loved you. Why wasn't that enough, man?

I know it wasn't. When Barry Bonds took that step from superstar to immortal in 2001, everything changed. You were the reigning MVP, but everyone stopped talking about you. Barry was conquering all, and you were in his shadow, along with the entire rest of the league. It bugged you. We could all see it. We still loved you, Jeff, but you weren't the man anymore. You were still the same hard-playing, ass-kicking player we knew, but Barry was the man, and I don't think you could handle it.

The 2002 season is when everything fell apart. You know what I'm talking about. The spring training motorcycle crash. The lies. The dugout blowup in San Diego which you started. Things really went sour for you, and I can totally understand you getting frustrated. But all that was forgiven, I think, after you guys went to the World Series. Like you said, we had a relationship.

All you had to do was come back and give it another shot. That's all. But it was plainly obvious you wanted to be anywhere but here.

You, Jeff, rejected us, the fans. The city. The team. The legacy.

It was a slap in the face, Jeff. And it hurt. It still does.

That's why we still boo, and that's why we always will boo you. You made it personal. You turned your back. It hurts you now, huh? Well, that's the way it goes.

You're probably still a hell of a player, but I wouldn't know, because I haven't paid any attention these last two years.

Jefferson 8:34 PM

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Sunday, September 05, 2004

 

Time To Get Away

My wife and I will be gone for a week's vacation starting tomorrow. I won't be posting because of that. This, I think, is a much better excuse than my usual reason for not posting, which is something like "uh, I forgot."

We'll be at Safeco Field tomorrow night for the very first time, watching Ichiro try to get another half-dozen infield hits...

See you when we get back!

Jefferson 9:02 PM

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Friday, September 03, 2004

 

Deep Schmidt

I've really been trying be optimistic about the Giants. Then I watch them play, and I lose it.

Jason Schmidt showed last night that his groin problem is bothering him more than he's letting on. In Henry Schulman's article in the S.F. Chronicle today, he says:

"Physically, I don't feel bad," he said. "Mentally, it's just a subconscious thing. I'm not getting out in front. I'm holding back, maybe afraid to test it. Sooner or later, I've just got to let it go."

That's pretty much the way I'm feeling about the Giants chances this morning. I've just got to let it go.

Why the depression this morning? Well, the writing is on the wall. Heck, it's on the floor, the ceiling, and it shows up as spam in my inbox several times a day. The signs are all there. Signs of Doom.

Schmidt has lost his stuff after the groin pull. He might get it back next start, but the two games he's started and lost are the difference in this race.

Ray Durham has been falling apart defensively, and last night he suffered a thumb sprain that isn't going to help at all.

The Giants don't know when to steal and when not to steal. Stealing a bag with Barry Freaking Bonds at the plate? What the hell is up with that? I think Barry took the called third strike there because he was stunned that Pedro was running.

The Giants don't know where to throw the ball. Alfonzo and Schmidt both had horrible throws to first that skipped under Feliz's glove and bounded down the right field line. Would J.T. Snow have picked those balls out of the dirt? Maybe. But that wouldn't help Durham's double-clutches or Matt Herges' inability to look home after a bases-loaded bunt.

Flat out, many of these Giants don't play smart baseball. They make up for it with a ton of Barry Bonds, Jason Schmidt, and hot streaks from guys like Snow, Grissom, and Tucker. They might luck their way into the playoffs if the Cubs and Padres continue to flounder. But it's not going to be pretty.

On the bright side, I'd like to wish Dave Burba a hearty "welcome back!" Acquired yesterday from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for some guy I've never heard of, Burba instantly becomes one of the team's best relievers:

Burba: 4.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.99 K/9
Brower: 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.15 K/9
Christiansen: 3.86 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.51 K/9
Walker: 4.37 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.71 K/9
Herges: 5.17 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 5.31 K/9
Franklin: 6.16 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 7.25 K/9

Okay, still not terrific, but he should displace Herges as the right-handed middle inning guy. He should also give Brower more time off in the later innings. Burba won't be eligible for the postseason, but at this rate, nobody else on the roster will be either.

Jefferson 7:58 AM

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Wednesday, September 01, 2004

 

Ready? Set? PANIC?

Hi, guys. I've been laying low on the Giants blogging front here. That's because it's hard to type while holding your breath every time a Giants pitcher takes the mound.

It's a deathtrap up there, you know. Jason Schmidt pulled a groin warming up on the mound not too long ago, you know. Jerome Williams felt his elbow seize up like a car that hadn't had its oil checked in 15,000 miles. Matt Herges creates his own Bermuda Triangle every time he's up there--wins just mysteriously vanish. And then yesterday, Brett Tomko injures his ankle celebrating a freaking strikeout.

So many others have gone up there this year, never to be seen again. Leo Estrella. David Aardsma. Merkin Valdez. Kevin Walker. Brian Cooper. Felix Rodriguez (who I believe was kidnapped by aliens and replaced by a poorly programmed baseball replicant).

The casualty rate among the San Francisco 1st Pitching Battalion is simply horrific.

Some of the boys don't do too well under a barrage, either. Running the bases, dodging grenades, you'll see the guys suffer mental breakdowns far too often. In the field, they show good instincts, staying away from those hard-hit bullets--of course, those aren't bullets, they're baseballs, and they're supposed to do goddamn catch them.

Let's face it, this team is a mess. Bad pitching, bad defense, bad baserunning.

And yet this team is STILL in the goddamn lead for the National League wild card.

And against the probable playoff teams (St. Louis, LA, and Atlanta), they have a 12-14 record.

And over the last month, they are scoring over 6.2 runs a game.

Think about that a bit. It's entirely conceivable that this badly flawed, schizophrenic, maddening Giants team will make the playoffs. It's also perfectly conceivable that they could beat the Cards 3 games to 2, in a series where Jason Schmidt starts twice. Heck, they could beat the Braves or the Dodgers in a 7-game series as well, winning some games 7-6 and losing some 7-6.

It's not entirely laughable. This team isn't nearly as good as the 2002 team, but it might make the World Series anyway. Crazy.

Jefferson 9:10 AM

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