Wednesday, March 31, 2004

 

Cactus League is Over!

All right, the Cactus League is over! Time for some real games. How did we do in Arizona, anyway? Okay, 9-17 is not so good. In fact, that's the worst record of all the major league clubs. Damn.

Well, no big deal, it's only spring, and spring really doesn't count for much. It's what will happen in the regular season that matters. So what do people think of the Giants this year? Let's flip around the Web and look. Hmm...

Baseball Prospectus used their PECOTA projections and said the Giants will go 82-80 and finish two games out of first. Behind the Padres. Ouch. Well, two games out at least gives us a fighting chance, right?

Hmm, on the same site Steven Goldman grades the Giants as a C- team. Below average, and worse than both Arizona and San Diego. Good grief!

Sports Illustrated says the Giants will finish second, behind the Snakes, and miss the playoffs. No!!

Oh, wait, here's one I like: MSNBC predicts first place and an 88-74 record for the Giants. Still, that's a drop of twelve wins.

No doubt about it, this is going to be a difficult year for Giants fans who have gotten used to 90+ win seasons. Between injuries and a loss of talent around the diamond, you just can't compare this year's squad to the one that won 100 games in 2003, or the one that almost won the World Series in 2002. That's okay, because everyone else in the division is no better than we are. 85 wins just might take it. As we've seen the last couple of years, if you can stay in the race and get hot going into the playoffs, you don't have to have the world's best lineup to win a Series.

But you have to stay in it. This Giants team, if things go wrong, could fall out of contention far earlier than we're used to. If things go right, though, it could be another great year.

So, here are the good signs I'll be looking for this season:

1) The injury bug goes away, and stays away. I'm not saying that Robb Nen has to come back and be effective; you really have to leave him out of any projections. I mean that the starters need to stay in the lineup, especially Bonds, Durham, Alfonzo, and Schmidt. The Giants simply cannot afford protracted injuries to any of those four.

2) The good hitters have at least career-average years. I don't expect Barry to hit 40 homers again or put up a .500 OBP. But he should still be very productive. More to the point, Durham, Alfonzo and Grissom cannot have down years. If those four guys are chugging along, the offense will at least be serviceable.

3) One of the new guys has a career year at the plate. Projections for Hammonds, Tucker, Mohr, Perez, et al are not very reassuring. But they're just projections. If one of these offseason moves turns up aces, then things will get a lot easier. You can include Pedro Feliz in here--if he pops up with 30 HRs and an OBP over .300, I'll be ecstatic.

4) For my keys to the pitching staff, I'm looking towards Jerome Williams, Brett Tomko and Jim Brower. Williams and Brower need to build upon the good results they got during the regular season last year. Brower was excellent in long relief and spot starts. Williams showed real flashes of brilliance. Tomko was brought in to eat up innings; if he can do that, it takes a lot of stress off the newly rebuilt bullpen. Oh, and Schmidt has to have another great year, of course.

But who knows--the Giants have added five new pitchers in the last 24 hours, so maybe the real keys are Franklin, Estrella, Crudale, Veres, and...and...brand new, just out of the wrapping paper, 27-year-old lefthander Kevin Walker!!!

You see? I was right. Spring results really don't count...when you replace half the pitching staff at the last minute, at least.

Next time: a completely obvious preview of Barry Bonds' 2004 season.

Jefferson 5:52 PM

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Tuesday, March 30, 2004

 

Busy Day For Sabean

Today saw a small flurry of moves by the Giants, involving four or five minor-league signings or trades.

With Robb Nen and Scott Eyre beginning the season on the disabled list, the bullpen needed some reinforcements. To this end, the Giants signed Dave Veres and Mike Crudale to minor-league contracts. Veres is 37, and was released by the Houston Astros this spring because his arm strength hasn't recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. Historically an above-average reliever, last year Veres put up his first ERA+ below 100. If this was because of his bad shoulder, and if Veres can rebound, this will be a good pickup at fairly low financial risk. But Veres is 37, and he is coming off shoulder surgery. Don't be surprised if he doesn't crack the majors this year.

I'm far more excited about the Crudale signing. Though he's pitched only 73.3 innings in the majors, he's got a career ERA of 2.09 (ERA+ is 192). He's given up only 4 HR, while racking up 60 K. I can't figure out why Milwaukee let him go. I know, the Brewers are a pathetic excuse for a franchise, but Crudale is only 27. Does he have a deep dark secret injury, or has Sabean found a gem? This is like the Scott Eyre pickup in 2002--a good pitcher, cast off for unknown reasons. My gut tells me this could work out at least as well. (Or that I'm full of onion soup.)

Of course, both Crudale and Veres are right-handed. Eyre's injury hurts because the Giants are short on lefty relievers. Therefore, the Giants traded minor league righties pitchers Carlos Villanueva and Glenn Woolard to the Milwaukee Brewers for lefty Wayne Franklin and righty Leo Estrella.

Franklin can both start and relieve, but he is terrible either way. His WHIP last year was in the range of 1.50, his ERA 5.50, and that's really the gist of it. Moving to SBC Park should help curb his generosity in giving up homers, but Franklin will probably be, at best, an emergency starter or LOOGY.

Leo Estrella is a 29-year-old reliever with only one real year of MLB experience. His stat line is the definition of mediocre, right down to his ERA+ of 100. I really don't know much about him, but he seems to be more useful than Franklin.

Sadly, I'll have to rely on either Stephen Shelby or Waiting For Boof to tell me if Woolard or Villanueva are any good, and if we gave up too much. I know neither pitcher was part of the major league camp this year, and that's about it.

The final transaction of the day was the signing of former Orioles starting shortstop Deivi Cruz to a minor-league contract. So now, if Neifi Perez and Cody Ransom are kidnapped by sabermetrically-challenged aliens, the Giants can replace them with someone just as bad at the plate. If I were Pedro Feliz (and let's face it, who wouldn't want to be Pedro Feliz?), I'd feel pretty secure in my position as Backup Infielder/Outfielder/Power-Hitting Prospect For All Ages.

Well, this is quite a lot more than I'd intended to write today, so my take on how the Giants can win the World Series this season will have to wait until tomorrow or next day. In the meantime, if you're hard up for more baseball stuff, check out what Rob Neyer had to say about MLB Sportsclix. (I am jealous.)

Jefferson 6:02 PM

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Thursday, March 25, 2004

 

Only Happy When It Rains

The goal of today's post is really to write something positive. However, Davan, Aubrey and Peejee have absolutely nothing to do with the Giants, no matter how I wish they'd handle the Neifi Situation for me. Therefore, I will set my sights a little lower, and hope for merely "less bitchy."

In no particular order:

Why does it always start raining right around Opening Day? We just had a couple weeks of fantastic baseball weather, but now it's back to storms. Somehow it always clears up shortly after Opening Day. The Giants rarely suffer a home rainout, and be glad for that--can you imagine SBC Park with a retractable roof? (If you do try to imagine it, Skaldheim is not responsible for any mental or emotional injuries. Void where prohibited.)

I wonder if 13th Street Red will have a new CD this season. It just isn't a Giants game if he's not pounding out the zydeco blues just south of the 3rd Street bridge afterwards. Not to get all Peter Gammons on you, but Red really is the Barry Bonds of postgame San Francisco street musicians.

I still hold out hope that Andres Galarraga will come back to the team after May 1.

This Bonds guy is having a good spring. Think he might make the squad? If he gets more hits than his website, he'll have a real good year.

Jefferson 6:14 PM

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Wednesday, March 24, 2004

 

Shoulders, Shoulders, Shoulders

Thinking some more about the Giants injury issues, I notice an alarming trend.

Jason Schmidt is having shoulder issues. So is Robb Nen. So is Edgardo Alfonzo. So is Tony Torcato. (Bonds, a noted nonconformist, rebelled and developed a stiff back instead. The only reason Hammonds didn't hurt his shoulder is because he ducked and the pitch hit his thumb instead.)

Weird. Remember that week in August 2002 when the entire Giants starting outfield suffered pulled hamstrings? This reminds me of that.

Of course, the Giants rebounded nicely from the hamstring pull-a-demic, nearly winning the World Series two months later. So if you're superstitious--and let's face it, if you're a baseball fan you have to be, at least a little--then really, this rash of shoulder problems is a GOOD thing....

Ouch....

I pulled my kvetching muscle yesterday; I think I just pulled my rationalizing muscle too...

Ouch.

Seriously, tomorrow I'll come up with some cheerier things to think about.

Jefferson 6:23 PM

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Tuesday, March 23, 2004

 

Spring Training for Chicken Little

It's spring training for Giants fans as well as Giants players. After a long winter of hibernation, it's time to stretch and get back in shape. Not physically, of course--if half of us tried to get off the couch and move around, FEMA would get a call before long--but emotionally and mentally.

Yes, it's time for the Spring Training Practice Gloom 'N Doom Panic! Just a test to see if this Giants fan can muster the necessary fatalism to face another inevitable postseason disappointment.

Let's see...how do we start?

The Giants are so doomed.

I mean, check it out--Jason Schmidt's shoulder is sore, and what started as a simple missed spring start is now threatening to extend into the regular season. Yeah, my heart just skipped a beat, too. If Schmidt goes down for a long period, the Giants are completely hosed. Just no chance to win whatsoever.

Okay, next up: Robb Nen. His shoulder hurts too. Yeah, that's the ticket. The trainer has told him to cut back on his workload because that damned shoulder won't stop hurting. Better warm up Herges to be the closer. If Nen falters, he might not ever come back. So Herges or Felix Rodriguez would be your closers. That just won't do.

And it just gets worse. Bonds, Alfonzo and Durham have all missed time due to nagging injuries or just being a million years old. Let's not kid ourselves--Barry is going to turn 40 this year. He keeps telling us he is already 40, but I know deep down he's really only 39. So he's not dead yet, but can we really expect another year of Superman? Will we have warning before Barry goes from Barry Bonds, 6-Time MVP to Barry Bonds, Former Great? I don't think so, and you have to wonder if this year is the year he falls to Earth. His dad's passed on, he's the eye of at least three hurricanes, he can't bring his guys in to stretch him anymore, and according to at least some wise guys, he's stopped taking those funny tablets that made him into Superman.

Let's face it--if Barry's not Barry Bonds, 6-Time MVP this year, the rest of the offense is going to show just how poor it is. We've got Neifi F. Perez playing shortstop every day, and if that isn't bad enough, the backups make more outs than he does! Is that even possible?

Don't get me started on right field. We need three right fielders because one gets hurt so much he gets volume discounts from his doctors.

Gah. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced this team is only going to win 35 games in 2004, and finish 150 games out of the playoffs...

Okay, I think I just pulled a muscle there. I shouldn't have tried to kvetch so hard in my first workout! Ouch.

Seriously, though--if a couple things go wrong (i.e., Schmidt and Bonds get hurt), this could become a lost season for the Giants, where they go 70-92 and we're all looking forward to football season in July. It could happen so easily. On the other hand, if things go just right, the Giants could go 95-67 and win the division.

The sooner we get this season started and see what we've really got, the happier I'll be. Another 6-0 start would be fantastic.

But that'll never happen three years in a row. Never.

Right?

Jefferson 3:33 PM

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Monday, March 22, 2004

 

Is It Opening Day Yet?

Now we come to the dreary end of March. Spring training's been going on about a month now, and the novelty of playing practice games has completely worn off. There's only so much tedium that fresh air and warm sunshine can overcome. Yeah, Barry hit three homers. But they don't count. When does the season start? (Can I get away with mentioning Barry without also mentioning that other thing? Hell, why not...even the media's gotten tired of the story.)

On the field, the Giants are having a pretty humdrum spring. No competitions are going on for starting jobs, unless you count the fifth spot in the rotation. The real competition is between Robb Nen and his shoulder, with Nen ahead in the early going. There's also the "how many positions can Pedro Feliz play?" game, which isn't as interesting to me as the "will Pedro finish with an on-base average over .300?" game. (The third competition, "how long before Hammonds gets hurt," is already closed.)

I tried playing the "worrying about the hitting" game, but I know too much to read much of anything into spring statistics.

Finally, I found a baseball game to help keep the March doldrums at bay: MLB Sportsclix. It combines the two things I yak about the most: miniatures, and baseball. It takes the thrill of collecting baseball cards and wraps it into a nifty little baseball boardgame. It's not a hardcore simulation, but it's something more complex than a beer & pretzels game. Each player has to make a large of number of tactical decisions with every at-bat: where to position his fielders; whether the pitcher will go for velocity or control; whether the hitter will swing for the fences or just try to put the bat on the ball. Baserunning is fully fleshed out too--deciding whether or not to advance the runner from first to third on a single is as important as you'd expect. You can even simulate different stadiums.

Giants fans will be disappointed by the lack of a Barry Bonds figure. This is the result of Barry opting out of the MLBPA's standard licensing agreement. I hope you won't let that get in the way of giving the game a shot, though.

Jefferson 9:51 AM

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Monday, March 15, 2004

 

Random Spring Training Thought

I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that if Jason Schmidt gets 6 RBI in every start, he'll go 30-0 and win the Cy Young.

Jefferson 3:15 PM

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Qufim, My Qufim

I haven't written much here recently. You might think that's because I've been playing tons of Final Fantasy XI. Sadly, I haven't even been doing that. Just been busy with real life things like working, paying bills, and stuff like that.

But yesterday I got to spend a whole day online and levelling up my taru mage. I went to Qufim Island, and went from 22nd level to 25th in one long day. It was great. I know that some people don't like Qufim, but I'm hereby declaring myself Qufim's #1 fan. I got into three separate parties, and I never had to wait long to get invited into one. Lots of monsters to kill, lots of good treasure. Action-packed, fun. I did get stomped flat by giants twice, but that's not nearly as bad ad I'd heard.

Now that I'm 25th level, it's time to leave Qufim and move on to Kazham Island. I'm sad about that. You could easily stay at Qufim and level up to 30th or higher, but no one does. I wouldn't be able to find a party.

So farewell, sweet barren Qufim. I will return someday, when my bard job reaches 20th level....

Jefferson 8:59 AM