Tuesday, September 30, 2003

 

Woohoo!!

I just landed tickets to tomorrow's game. I am incredibly stoked. It'll be my first playoff game. I hope Sir Sidney deals as well as Schmidt did today!

Jefferson 5:32 PM

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Fried Fish

They walked Bonds three times. It didn't work.

Jason Schmidt strangled the Marlins, and the Giants are up 1 game to nothing.

That's one! And that means it's one more than we got in '97...

Jefferson 3:52 PM

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Monday, September 29, 2003

 

Rampant Uninformed Predictions

Yesterday's analysis of Giants v. Marlins left me spent. So here's my short, gut, kneejerk, blind thoughts on the rest of the series:

Braves vs. Cubs: Dusty Baker has once again proved he can pull playoff teams out of his butt, even with teams that have gaping, Estes-sized holes. Prior, Wood and Clement give them the chance to win any short series, but I think Atlanta has too many bats. Plus, if the Giants have to face the Cubs in the NLCS, I'll need my own blanket of fear. The Cubbies own the Giants this season.

Yankees vs. Twins: The Yankees own the Twins. I want the Twins to win. They're just not gonna.

A's vs. Red Sox: The A's will go down in the first round once again. The A's have no offense to speak of. The Red Sox could take down Godzilla with those bats (and in the ALCS, they will).

Twenty-one and a half hours until the playoffs really start. Thanks ever so much to Fox and MLB for sticking all the Giants games at 1 pm where I can't see them. Darth Selig can (edited for strong language and improbable physics).

Jefferson 2:44 PM

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Sunday, September 28, 2003

 

Ours Goes To One Hundred

The Giants won their regular season finale today, and finish the 2002 season with a record of 100-61. It's only the seventh time the Giants have finished with 100 wins or better:

2003 100-61 (won NL West, ??)
1993 103-59 (finished 2nd in NL West)
1962 103-62 (won NL pennant)
1913 101-51 (won NL pennant)
1912 103-48 (won NL pennant)
1905 105-48 (won World Series)
1904 106-47 (won NL pennant; no World Series that year)

Jefferson 3:57 PM

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Giants vs. Marlins NLDS Preview

I got my wish. The Marlins are coming to town. Let's break down the starters for each side and see who comes up looking better (all stats as of Sunday morning):

Starting Lineups

Left Field
Giants: Barry Bonds (.339/.528/.747)
Marlins: Jeff Conine (.283/.337/.460) or Miguel Cabrera (.268/.326/.470)

The best hitter on the planet. Jeff Conine. Hmm. Huge advantage to the Giants.

Center Field
Giants: Marquis Grissom (.300/.322/.468)
Marlins: Juan Pierre (.305/.361/.373, 64 SB/20 CS)

Pierre is a speedy slap hitter, but utterly lacking in power. Most of this steals came before the break; he's been thrown out on 33% of his steal attempts since. Grissom never met a pitch he didn't like. When he does make contact, though, he can hit it out with regularity. Still, thanks to the large number of outs he makes, I give the advantage to the Marlins.

Right Field
Giants: Jose Cruz Jr. (.250/.366/.414)
Marlins: Juan Encarnacion (.270/.314/.447)

Cruz is probably the most underrated player on the Giants. He gets on base, has a bit of power, and is turning in a Gold Glove season. Encarnacion is more of a typical outfielder who relies on driving the ball into the gaps. Cruz's defense and patience at the plate tips the scale. Advantage to Giants.

First Base
Giants: J.T. Snow (.272/.388/.419) and Andres Galarraga (.301/.352/.489)
Marlins: Derrek Lee (.271/.380/.509)

Lee feasts on left-handed pitching, and he hits a lot better away from Pro Player Stadium (.297/.388/.591) than he does at home (.241/.371/.420). I'm glad the Giants aren't starting any lefties at Pac Bell. Snow is having a quietly productive season between groin pulls; Galarraga is more effective against lefties. We'll probably see him start in Game 3 against Redman, and maybe against Willis in Game 4 as well. Overall, slight advantage to the Marlins.

Second Base
Giants: Ray Durham (.284/.364/.439)
Marlins: Luis Castillo (.314/.381/.397)

Castillo is a switch-hitter who definitely favors the right side of the plate. He has speed, but he will run his team out of rallies quite a lot (21 SB vs. 19 CS). He's been slumping in September. Durham, on the other hand, is having a pretty decent one. This one's a draw.

Third Base
Giants: Edgardo Alfonzo (.258/.333/.385)
Marlins: Mike Lowell (.277/.351/.531, DL), Miguel Cabrera (.268/.326/.470)

Mike Lowell comes off the DL today, for the final game of the regular season. The big question is how well he will be able to play. If he's 100%, he adds a powerful punch to the middle of the Marlins order. If he's not, it's bad news for the Fish. Alfonzo's numbers are deceiving because of his painfully slow start. In September he's hitting .294/.402/.574. I'll call this one a toss-up.

Shortstop
Giants: Rich Aurilia (.277/.325/.410)
Marlins: Alex Gonzalez (.255/.312/.438)

Gonzalez struggles against righties, and at home. He'll swing at anything--not a good thing against the likes of Schmidt and Reuter. He's bouncing back from a horrible July & August. Aurilia's having a bad year at the plate, but still better than Gonzalez. September has been his best month, as well. Slight advantage to the Giants.

Catcher
Giants: Benito Santiago (.279/.329/.424)
Marlins: Ivan Rodriguez (.297/.369/.474)

Benito is fading fast, both at the plate and behind it. Pudge is having a pretty nice year, especially facing lefties at home. Hitting against right-handers, he's average. Advantage to the Marlins.

That adds up to three for the Giants, three for the Fish, and three that are too close to call. Of course, that means that the big difference between the teams is Barry. No surprise there. How about the starting pitching?

Starting Pitching

Game 1
Giants: Jason Schmidt (RHP, 17-5, 2.34 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
Marlins: Josh Beckett (RHP, 9-8, 3.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

Best starting pitcher in the National League vs. someone who's not. Schmidt leads a staff whose ERA is better than any other NL playoff team. Beckett's road ERA is 3.59. Schmidt's home ERA is 2.24. Advantage Giants.

Game 2
Giants: Sidney Ponson (RHP, 17-12, 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Marlins: Brad Penny (RHP, 14-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)

A knight of Aruba vs. someone who's not. Penny's road ERA is 4.62. Ponson's ERA at Pac Bell is over 5. Oops. No advantage either way.

Game 3
Giants: Kirk Rueter (LHP, 10-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)
Marlins: Mark Redman (LHP, 14-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

The luckiest man on the planet vs. someone who's not. Rueter's been on a hot streak his last five starts. He's much more effective (4.08 ERA) at Pac Bell, like most pitchers. However, the game will be in Florida, where Redman sports a nifty 2.88 ERA. Advantage Marlins.

Game 4
Giants: Jerome Williams (RHP, 7-5, 3.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Marlins: Dontrelle Willis (LHP, 13-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

Willis has been a phenom, but he's 2-4 in his last six decisions. Also, the Giants do not fear lefties. Finally, in my not so humble opinion, Williams is simply more talented. Advantage Giants.

Projection

Looks to me like the Giants should take Game 1. Game 2 worries me, but Ponson's last start was promising. I'd have Hermanson greased up and ready to go, just in case. If the Giants can win Games 1 and 2, they're set. Game 3 will likely go Florida's way, but the Giants mash lefties pretty well, so maybe not. I like the Giants' chances in Game 4, and they'd have Schmidt again in Game 5.

I don't think we're looking at a sweep, but I don't think we're looking at a 1997-style upset, either. Their pitching is better than Florida's; they have Bonds; they have home-field advantage; their offense is better suited to take advantage of Florida's pitching than vice versa.

I think the Giants will take it in four games.

Jefferson 10:55 AM

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Saturday, September 27, 2003

 

I Am Impure

This is fairly amusing....

Your Ultimate Roleplaying Purity Score
Category	Your Score	Average
Hacklust	16.98% Slew entire Asgardian Pantheon with one hand while blindfolded	53.1%
Sensitive Roleplaying	26.58% All the game's your stage	53.7%
GM Experience	28.26% Closer to a novel than to a campaign	68.7%
Systems Knowledge	81.64% Played in a couple of campaigns	89.9%
Livin' La Vida Dorka	31.03% Carries dice in pocket 'just in case'	62.4%
You are 40.9% pure Average Score: 68.1%
Take The Ultimate Roleplaying Purity Test and see how you match up!

Jefferson 10:08 PM

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Saturday, September 20, 2003

 

Bring On The Marlins

I want the Giants to face the Florida Marlins in the National League Division Series.

I've given this a lot of thought. I've crunched a lot of numbers, weighed all the alternatives with a rational, objective, scientific eye, and run endless computer simulations of all the potential opponents. That wasn't much fun, so I asked myself instead: "If this were The Wrath of Khan, a really kickass movie, who would the Giants be facing?"

The Marlins.

For revenge.

Revenge for 1997.

Revenge against MLB for giving us "home field advantage" by having us play Games 1 and 2 in Miami.

Revenge against Livan.

Revenge against the idea that any freaking expansion team can win a World Series in four or five years, but the Giants have to wait for generations.

Revenge against that football stadium the Marlins play in.

Revenge against the idea that they're the "Florida" Marlins instead of the much cooler sounding Miami Marlins.

Revenge for how they ruined Brian Johnson's incredible home run in extra innings against the Dodgers that year.

Revenge for how they ruined Barry Bonds' kinetic celebration on top of the dugout at Candlestick (that was the moment I realized that Barry maybe wasn't the jerk the media said he was).

Revenge for Shooter not making it to the Series.

We nailed the Braves (for 1993) and the Cardinals (for 1987) in last year's playoffs. Now let's pay back those stinkin' fish!!

Jefferson 10:28 AM

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Friday, September 19, 2003

 

Montreal Expos For Another Year!

I just received e-mail from Major League Baseball with breaking news--

The Expos players weighed their options on Friday and in
the end, decided to play the entire 2004 home season in
Montreal.

Any permanent relocation of the Expos is now officially
delayed until 2005, at the earliest, said Bob DuPuy,
Major League Baseball's president, chief operating officer,
and a member of the relocation committee that has been
studying the future of the team.

Complete Story >> http://lists.mlb.com/u/282528/6405328

This is good news for the Expos and the fans in Montreal. What MLB did to the team was year was simply unconscionable. They What they'll do to the roster next year will probably require another adjective. The league has threatened massive cutbacks in the payroll if the players didn't agree to another split schedule. This means that the contract negotiations between the Expos and superstar Vlad Guerrero, who will be a free agent after this season, may be aborted. The Expos are on the hook for Livan Hernandez's $6+ million option for 2004. If MLB tells them to cut payroll, that will tie their hands quite a bit.

However, every year the Expos are given a reprieve is good. It increases the odds that the team will find a long-term solution to staying where they belong permanently. The odds are still very slim, but they're better than they were yesterday.

Jefferson 4:44 PM

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I will be away all next week, taking Active Directory classes. Be excited for me. Just don't expect any updates until September 29th or so--just in time for the baseball playoffs!

Jefferson 1:03 PM

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Wednesday, September 17, 2003

 

THE GIANTS ARE YOUR 2003 NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST CHAMPIONS!!!

Jefferson 9:46 PM

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Barry & Me

After Dawn and I got home from Pac Bell Park last night--which was about 3 hours after Barry Bonds hit career homer #656--it occured to me that I'd seen Barry homer an awful lot in person this year. So I reviewed my scorecard for all the games I've been to this year.

I've seen 15 games in person this year. Barry's hit 8 homers in those games. That's a pace of 86 homers per 162 games.

Cool.

Jefferson 8:05 PM

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Bullpen or Blowpen?

I'll be honest. The Giants bullpen has made me sad for the last month or so. I think it started the day Tim Worrell gave up that walk-off grand slam in Montreal. Maybe it started before that. But recently, the pen has worried the heck out of me, especially with the playoffs looming.

So let's go to the ERA stats and see if they really are worse in September than before. I'll just do a quick & dirty comparison of their September ERAs to their ERAs for 2003 as a whole. I'd love to do a WHIP comparison instead, but ESPN doesn't do WHIP splits by month. (That sounds painful, come to think of it.)

                        ERA

Pitcher        Sept. - 2003 =   SAR*      Sept. IP

Brower          4.91 - 4.07 =   0.84        7.1

Christiansen   16.20 - 5.24 =  10.96        1.2

Eyre            2.08 - 3.52 =  -1.44        4.1

Herges          1.69 - 2.81 =  -1.12        5.1

Nathan          4.77 - 3.12 =   1.65        5.2

Rodriguez       1.59 - 3.20 =  -1.61        5.2

Worrell         4.32 - 2.53 =   1.79        8.1

Zerbe           6.75 - 4.66 =   2.09        1.1



*September Awfulness Rating

As you can see, it's really a mixed bag. Worrell has been pretty bad this month, and has pitched the most innings in relief. But most of the rest of the guys are actually doing better, from a strictly ERA perspective, than I thought.

This doesn't really mean too much--ERA isn't really as complete a measure for relievers as it is for starters. (This is because relievers often inherit baserunners from the pitchers they're relieving.) And you can't really tell anything from a 5-8 inning sample.

But Worrell *has* been raising my blood pressure with his rocky outings, and I'm not entirely crazy! (At least, not for believing that.)

However, the Giants bullpen has the 7th best ERA in the major leagues in 2003. As a team, the Giants bullpen has an ERA of 3.56. Of the teams likely to make the playoffs, only the A's (3.48) and Astros (3.21) are better. (The Mariners bullpens has a 3.35 ERA, but I don't think they'll make it.)

So now that I think about it, the Giants bullpen should be a strength going into the playoffs.

Unless Worrell continues to suck.

Or something.

Jefferson 6:48 PM

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Like the sands in the hourglass....

Well, uh, damn. I really suck at multitasking. I apologize for the horrendously long gap between posts. The last three weeks of the season have been surprisingly ho-hum, considering that the Giants have been rolling along towards their first National League West title in three years. There hasn't been much suspense to this race, except for how many times Tim Worrell was going to drive up my blood pressure.

But it gets down to the end tonight, most likely--the stars are aligned. Schmidt is starting for the Giants tonight, and some guy with an 8.22 ERA is starting for the Padres. Rookie of the Year candidate Brandon Webb is starting for the Arizona Fifteenbacks against the Dodgers tonight. If Schmidt and Webb pitch true to form tonight, the Giants will become division champions sometime between 10:00 and 10:30 pm.

But for now...

GIANTS MAGIC NUMBER: 2.

Jefferson 6:37 PM

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