Monday, May 26, 2003

 

Ack! I'm turning into a stathead. I actually broke out the OpenOffice.org spreadsheet program for today's installment.

Yesterday, I pointed out that the Giants pitching staff has been a primary cause of the teams' struggles in 2003. (Yes, I know we're still half a game in first place; but that's like saying "so far, so good" halfway down after jumping off the Empire State Building.) This is mainly caused by the staff giving up more walks and more home runs. Today, I'm going to present a comparison of this year's staff to last year's staff, to show where these extra walks and homers are coming from.

I've broken it down person by person, using the general roles for each pitcher. Sometimes the changes aren't specific; Nen hasn't been really replaced by Worrell, but by Jim Brower, for instance. You can quibble with some of my choices, I'm sure, but here it is:

Giants BB/9 & HR/9, 2003 vs. 2002

Giants pitching comparison
2002 pitcher	2003 pitcher	BB/9 difference	HR/9 difference	ERA difference
Rueter, Kirk	Rueter, Kirk	0.26	-0.68	-0.14
Schmidt, Jason	Schmidt, Jason	-0.93	-0.29	-0.84
Ortiz, Russ	Moss, Damien	1.7	0.13	-0.1
Hernandez, Livan	Ainsworth, Kurt	0.68	0.27	-0.28
Jensen, Ryan	Foppert, Jesse	2.69	0.22	0.32
Worrell, Tim	Worrell, Tim	-0.33	0.65	-0.88
Rodriguez, Felix	Rodriguez, Felix	0.98	0.14	0.59
Witasick, Jay	Nathan, Joe	-0.19	0.89	0.2
Nen, Robb	Brower, Jim	3.14	1	3.39
Zerbe, Chad	Zerbe, Chad	-1.22	-0.48	4.07
Eyre, Scott	Eyre, Scott	-2.36	0.92	2.07
Fultz, Aaron	Jensen, Ryan	-0.66	3.2	6.13

Positive numbers mean the 2003 pitcher is giving up more (that is, pitching worse) than the 2002 edition. There are a lot of positive numbers in that chart, aren't there?

Damien Moss' walk numbers are alarming to even the casual observer. He was able to survive them for the first month, but now the walks are coming back to hurt him. His last few starts are more indicative of what to expect from a guy who walks that many people. The Giants are saving a few million this year because of the Moss trade, but it will cost them a few wins.

Jesse Foppert continues to improve, but thus far he hasn't been able to equal Ryan Jensen's performance from last year. He has walked far too many people. He is highly unlikely to equal Jensen's 13 wins unless he improves dramatically in short order.

Felix Rodriguez didn't have a great year last year, but he had the excuse of a lingering injury to his finger. This year, he's lost control, and I don't know what the reason for it is. But he's gone from potential All-Star closer material to mediocre reliever in a hurry.

While Robb Nen's injury means that Worrell is now closing games, the roster spot Nen vacated is really being filled by Jim Brower. I wrote a month or so ago that as far as closing went, Worrell would be Nen's equal, and that's been true. Unfortunately, the middle relief has suffered greatly. If Rodriguez is mediocre, then Brower is poor (nearly a walk per nine inning worse, not to mention half a homer per nine innings). If Nen were healthy, then the Giants would be doing much better with Worrell in the 8th inning and Felix in the 7th, and Brower in Fresno.

We all know that Nathan has been pretty good this year; he seems to come in during situations where we saw the steady Jay Witasick last year. Problem is, Nathan's started giving up the gopher balls more recently. In fact, Nathan's 4 homers allowed this year is already higher than Witasick's season total for 2002. This is an interesting situation, and I could see it go either way. Nathan could resume his amazing form of April, or he could continue to regress and become another mediocre reliever. The Giants can't really afford the latter.

Scott Eyre's been walking far fewer people, but apparently at the cost of grooving more pitches over the plate. His ERA has skyrocketed as a result.

All of this bad news overshadows the marked improvements by Kirk Rueter, Jason Schmidt, and even Chad Zerbe. Ultimately, this is a pitching staff in need of help. It needs another solid reliever to replace Brower. They don't need to trade for an expensive closer to replace Nen; just someone quietly effective like Witasick was last year. Jason Christiansen may be that guy. He could be back in June, and has been pitching well in his rehab appearances. All he has to do is be better than Brower, and that shouldn't be hard. If he falters, the Giants will need to look at the trade market.

With the middle relief so shaky, Felipe Alou will be tempted to push Rueter, Ainsworth, Moss and Foppert to pitch seven innings every start. The problem is, none of those guys is efficient enough to get that deep. For better or worse, you need to pull those guys when they hit 100 pitches. This is where not having Livan Hernandez around hurts. Livan could go deep into games (unless he blew up in the first inning), and even his mediocre numbers were better than what Ainsworth's putting up so far. I never thought I'd miss the big donut machine, but he does have his uses. So maybe you shop around for a guy like him, and send Foppert back to AAA to work on his control. Having a second starter who can go deep into games would reduce the Giants' reliance on Brower and Rodriguez. If they could do that and replace Brower or Rodriguez with a better model, so much the better.

Brian Sabean has no spare room in the budget to work with, so he'll need to be creative if he wants to improve the pitching staff. We'll have to see how that goes over the next couple of months.

Jefferson 10:21 AM

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Sunday, May 25, 2003

 

I apologize for my prolonged absence from these pages. I did attempt to post something last night, but Blogger wisely decided to burn it before all of you could see how uninspired it was. I was away from my office for several days this week, attending system administration classes. My brain was thus not stuck on its normal mode of baseball and gaming.

The 2003 Giants are a boon to Alka-Seltzer sales all over the Bay Area. This is a team that can crank out a six-game winning streak multiple times, or lose nine out of eleven. They started 13-1, but they're only 17-17 since then. They built up a seven-game lead in the division, and now it's only a game or two. Who are these guys? Are they a good team that's struggling, or a mediocre team that had a hell of a start? Is this like 2002, where they started quick, muddled through until August, and then slammed it into high gear through the World Series?

Let's have a look at some numbers. First, some relating to the offense. Without Jeff Kent, the offense was supposed to struggle. Has it?

San Francisco Giants team statistics

Statistic           2002  NL Rank       2003  NL Rank

OBP                 .344     2          .347     3

SLG                 .442     1          .430     5

OPS                 .786     1          .777     4

OPS w/RISP          .801     4          .779     5

Runs/game           4.81     6          4.30     8

If you were only to look at the first three columns, you'd say the offense is ever so slightly worse than last year. Really, the numbers are so close, and the 2003 sample size so small, that you have to say there's no significant difference. So how is this year's team scoring half a run per game less than the '02 squad? Ultimately, it's luck. The '03 Giants are doing about as well with runners in scoring position as last year. A 20-point dip in OPS is interesting, but not enough to account for half a run per game, I would think. Over the course of the season, the run totals will improve if the Giants keep hitting this well. So it's not that we miss Jeff Kent, or because Barry Bonds isn't playing as well. The offense is hitting; it's just not getting hits in the right combinations. There's nothing you can do about that. Of course, if Bonds' injured knee lingers, and his performance suffers, all bets are off. (On the other hand, if Neifi Perez gets injured or otherwise forcibly removed from the lineup, the offense can only get better.)

So let's look at the pitching. The Giants have gone with youth in their rotation this year, trading Russ Ortiz for Damien Moss, and effectively swapping Livan Hernandez for Jesse Foppert (not to mention Ryan Jensen for Kurt Ainsworth). Robb Nen's injured, so the bullpen is also supposed to be a huge problem. Here's what the numbers say:

San Francisco Giants team statistics

Statistic           2002  NL Rank       2003  NL Rank

ERA                 3.54     2          3.99     7

WHIP               1.302     4         1.398     9

BB/9                3.27     3          3.94    14 

HR allowed/9        .727     1          .934     6

Here, my friends, is the problem. The Giants are giving up nearly half a run more per game than last year. This isn't just luck, as it is with the offense. They're giving up 28% more home runs, and 20% more walks, than they did last year. In fact, they're nearly the worst in the league in walks allowed. Home runs and walks have nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with the skill of the pitcher. Worse, they directly translate into runs--put a lot of guys on base, let people hit homers, and you're in big trouble. Tomorrow, I'll break down the Giants pitching staff, and we'll see in more detail who's giving up all these extra walks and homers.

For now, we have enough info to see where the Giants stand:

San Francisco Giants team statistics

Statistic           2002  NL Rank       2003  NL Rank

Expected win %      .618     1          .569     7

The expected win percentage is derived using Bill James' "Pythagorean theorem," which is calculated as "Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared])." It's an accurate predictor of future performance. Last year, the Angels and Giants had the best expected win percentages, despite being wild cards. This year, the Giants are in the middle of the pack.

To sum up--it's simple. Score half a run less per game, and give up half a run more per game, and you're simply not as good a baseball team. Even if the offense's bad luck turns, the pitching staff is still half a run per game worse. So I tend to believe the .569 record for the year. That will yield 92 wins, and may still be enough to win the division. But probably not.

Tomorrow, we'll break down the pitching staff, and play everybody's favorite "if I were the GM" game.

Jefferson 11:27 AM

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Wednesday, May 14, 2003

 

Another loss. Let's accentuate the positive:

* Neifi Perez scoring on an infield fly--something you just have to see to fully appreciate--is the funniest thing I've seen on a ball field since Calvin "The Freshmaker" Murray won a game early in 2002 by falling down on the basepaths five times.

* Marquis Grissom had a great day at the plate, going 4-for-4.

* Edgardo Alfonzo continues to heat up, going 2-for-4 with a 3-run homer.

* Giants bullpen was solid as always, pitching 2 1/3 scoreless innings, giving up no hits and two walks.

* The Dodgers lost too, so the Giants are still 6 games up in the National League West.

Now that that's out of the way, let me give in to my more cynical, awful self and vent a little bit.

Three times last night, Vladimir Guerrero came up with runners on base and two out. In the first inning, he came up with an open base at first, and Felipe Alou decides to pitch to him. Vladimir got an RBI single. In the seventh inning, he came up with a man on first in a tie game. Alou pitches to him again, and Vladimir hits a mammoth two-run homer which proves to be the game-winner. Finally, in the ninth inning, Vladimir came up with two out and a man on second. Finally, Alou walks him. Then Wil Cordero strikes out, getting Worrell out of the inning.

Why, why, why pitch to a monster like Guerrero in any of those situations? I guarantee you that Bonds would have been walked all three times. Sure, Guerrero's having a slow start (.281/.403/.492 after last night's game), but you know it's not going to last. And Cordero, batting behind Bad Vlad, is easier to get out (.299/.358/.443).

The Giants' record against good teams is starting to bother me. Against teams who are currently over .500 (Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Houston, and Chicago), they're 7-10. Against the rest of the world, they're 18-3. This does not bode well for their hopes of advancing deep into the postseason again. It's still early yet, though. You can point out that most of those losses to good teams have come in the last two weeks, during which time the Giants offense has been slumping. I might buy that.

Speaking of slumping, J.T. Snow has cooled off a lot. He's now hitting only .276/.369/.410. Andres Galarraga, in about half the plate appearances, is putting up an ungodly .372/.426/.628. There's no way the Big Cat will keep up those numbers at age 42, but it's time for the annual "what do we do with Snow" debate. I admit that I love the Big Cat, and would love to see him playing every day, so I'm not the world's most objective observer. But you have to wonder if Alou is thinking about platooning them more often.

Four-game losing streaks make me cranky.

Jefferson 12:53 PM

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Tuesday, May 13, 2003

 

Ah, the world is tipping over now. Amazing how quickly a three-game losing streak, coupled with an awful injury to your leadoff hitter and compounded by the prospect of watching Neifi Perez fail at the plate for the next month...well, I'm feeling pretty pessimistic, let's just leave it at that. The Giants still aren't hitting well with runners in scoring position (.254/.366./.411). Now the bench consists of Andres Galarraga, Yorvit Torrealba, two guys from Fresno, and two other guys who should be in Fresno.

But we're coming up on a pretty forgiving part of the schedule. After Montreal leaves, we get the woeful Mets for four games, the Rockies for eight games and Arizona for five. That will take us to interleague play in early June. The Giants should be able to continue winning at a .600 clip through those series. Being 37-19 on June 3 doesn't sound so bad.

My suspicions about Marvin Benard appear to be true--Floyd Thursby from Waiting For Boof noticed that Benard is starting for Fresno already. I'm guessing that Giants GM Brian Sabean has found a creative way to get Marvin some playing time to sort himself out. I would imagine that Benard doesn't have any options left, but that's just a guess. If Jason Ellison shows any spark at all, you have to wonder if and when Benard will be back in the bigs.

Joe Nathan has had a rough week. In his last three appearances, he has 3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 HR, 3 K, and an ERA of 12.00, but no walks allowed. Last night he had a very tough situation--he came in with the bases loaded and two out, facing Jose Vidro, who doubled to clear the bases. Vidro's double was just inside the bag at first. The next inning, Nathan came back and got Vlad Guerrero and Wil Cordero to foul out, and then struck out Fernando Tatis, with a Wilkerson single his only blemish. Nathan won't have a sub-1.00 ERA by the end of the year, but he'll remain a vital part of the Giants bullpen all year long.

Before I forget, the Giants don't have the best record in baseball now, but they're only one game behind the Yankees, and a half game behind the Braves. Pretty good company, I have to admit.

Jefferson 1:07 PM

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Sunday, May 11, 2003

 

The Wednesday night D&D group, for which I am the referee, is about to finish the second module in Rob Kuntz' classic "Maze of Zayene" series. We've needed months and months to finish two modules. Are we ready to return to much shorter, original adventures? Possibly. If so, it'll be back to my T'Regnor city campaign. In anticipation of that possibility, I've posted a prospectus for potential players in the Tales of T'Regnor campaign. It's pretty basic at this point, but it has the essentials.

Jefferson 12:22 PM

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Saturday, May 10, 2003

 

Baseball's daily schedule and long season provide innumerable wonderful moments to fans of any team, no matter how good or how bad. Heck, even the lowly Detroit Tigers had a nice little 4-game winning streak this week. A week ago, no one ever would have believed that. For the Oakland Athletics, how about overcoming a Jason Giambi home run to beat the hated New York Yankees...twice in one week!

I mention the A's only in relation to the wonderful thing their win gave Giants fans last night. With the Yankees' loss, and the Giants' fonging of Greg Maddux and the Atlanta Braves, your San Francisco Giants now have the best record in major league baseball. The Giants are 25-9; the Yankees are 25-10. That's right, the Yankees might have spent one beeeelyun dollars on players, and the Necronomicon itself may prophesy that the Yankees will rise up from dread R'lyeh when the stars are right, but today, May 10, 2003, they are not the best team in baseball. That honor goes to your San Francisco Giants.

Jesse Foppert got the win last night, evening his record to 2-2. Oh, and by the way, he beat certain Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Rookie went up against legend, and rook came out smelling like victory. You think Foppert's going to remember this the rest of his life? He walked three and gave up five hits in six innings, lowering his ERA to 5.18. It looks like he's settling into his new job with each start. If he continues to do a decent job as the #5 starter, then the Giants rotation is in pretty good shape. The Giants are tied for 6th in team ERA (3.66) out of the 30 teams. Before the season, it looked like the pitching staff would be the weak part of the team, filled with unproven rookies and second-year guys. Instead, it's been the Giants strength.

It should be even stronger now. Yesterday the Giants sent left-handed reliever Chad Zerbe down to Fresno, and recalled Ryan Jensen from the disabled list. Jensen will pitch out of the bullpen as he gets his stuff back together. Jensen isn't nearly as bad as he looked early this year, and should be better than Zerbe in a relief role.

In another roster move, the Giants put outfielder Marvin Benard on the disabled list, and recalled outfielder Jason Ellison from Fresno. Aside from one terrific inning on April 13 against the Dodgers, Benard has played terribly all year long. If his knee really is bothering him, that might explain it. If his skills are fading as many believe, then we may have seen the last of Benard in a Giants uniform.

Jefferson 11:35 AM

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Wednesday, May 07, 2003

 

The Highland Badgers are back! Steve Jackson Games is re-releasing Richard Kerr's classic "Off the Wall" fantasy army miniatures. I'm very happy about this, even though I already have several dozen of the badgers. I haven't painted any of them yet, I'm afraid. I've had them for many years--maybe since Gencon 1995, even. The idea of painting several dozen--nay, a virtual army!--of the furry kilted dudes daunted me. I hadn't learned how to paint up armies back then. Now that I've bashed out a ton of GW Lord of the Rings figures, I feel up to the task. I may get the badgers kitted up by the end of 2003...you never know!

Three or four years ago, I introduced the Badgers as a player character race for our Dungeons & Dragons campaign. I didn't use any of Richard Kerr's background; indeed, I don't think I was aware of it at all. Instead, I did a fairly generic writeup of Scottish-style badgers for 3rd edition D&D. I understand SJ Games is going to write them up for GURPS, too.

I haven't played any miniatures wargames recently. I most recently finished painting a cave troll, four Uruk-Hai archers, four High Elven Swordsmen, an Armorcast resin pond (pics soon, I hope). I now have the four hobbits from the Fellowship of the Ring boxed set on my table.

Jefferson 3:39 PM

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Tuesday, May 06, 2003

 

I have no deep thoughts at all today, so here are a few interesting Giants notes:

Edgardo Alfonzo has a five-game hitting streak. During those games, he is 9-for-19 with a homer and 5 RBI. He has raised his batting average 49 points, to .216. Sounds like he's coming around.

On the other hand, Marquis Grissom is on a 2-for-18 slump. Oops.

Joe Nathan has now pitched 24 1/3 scoreless innings. It's now May, and he has not yet given up a single earned run. He hasn't even given up an unearned run. His WHIP is about 0.75. This guy is simply unreal.

On the other hand, Robb Nen is having a third operation on his injured shoulder, and he will definitely be out for the entire season. Lousy way to enter free agency, if you ask me. Here's hoping he's back on the mound in 2004, dominating like he used to.

Andres Galarraga is 8-for-10 with runners in scoring position.

On the other hand, Jose Cruz Jr. is only 7-for-28 with runners in scoring position.

The Giants are now 22-9, with a 6 1/2-game lead over the Colorado Rockies. Not bad for May 6.

And oh, by the way, some dude named Barry hit his 10th homer of the year today. If he continues this pace, he'll hit 54 this year and end the season with, oh, I dunno, 667 career home runs. Give or take a dozen.

Jefferson 8:12 PM

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Thursday, May 01, 2003

 

A 19-8 start sounds great, unless you had a 13-1 start to begin with. The Giants lost to the Cubs today 5-1, in a mistake-filled, painful ballgame. Since that 13-1 start, the Giants have gone 6-7. They've been leaving a lot of guys on base, too.

A rough patch was bound to come eventually, especially since the Giants offense is missing a couple of key pieces. Rich Aurilia has missed most of the Cubs series with an eye irritation, and when he has been in the lineup, he's been hitting below expectations. Alfonzo has simply not gotten it done either. Once those two get back up to speed, the offense should pick up again.

In the meantime, watch for the Dodgers to close things up a bit with the Giants.

Jefferson 4:35 PM

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Well, that was more like it. Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds put on a show last night. Hard to say which was more impressive, Schmidt's 3-hit, 12-K shutout or Barry's twin homers (and very nearly a third).

Let's start with Schmidt's performance. As impressive as his pitching line was (9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K), it doesn't show how thoroughly he kept the Cubs off balance. The Cubs put only 18 balls in play, and the only hard-hit ones were the three hits. The defense had a pretty easy night, though Jose Cruz Jr. did make a hell of a throw in the ninth to hold a Cub to a single. Schmidt threw a 94 mph fastball consistently the entire game, mixing in a wicked changeup for great effect. It was the type of dominating outing you expect out of a true #1 starter, like a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez.

Is Schmidt a true #1 starter? People won't call him one until he leads a staff in victories and ERA, and this might be the year he does it. Here's the breakdown of the Giants starters so far:

Name		W   L   ERA   WHIP   K/9    BB/9

Schmidt	         3   0   1.77  1.12   10.09  3.28

Moss		4   0   2.35  1.43    4.70  5.57

Reuter		2   1   3.34  1.51    1.54  3.60

Ainsworth	         3   1   4.91  1.43    6.14  2.76

The only categories Schmidt doesn't lead are wins (which we can ignore as he missed a couple of starts for his mother's funeral) and walks per nine innings. So, after a handful of starts, Schmidt is the leader of the staff thus far. It's early, though. Over a whole season, how will Schmidt have to perform to be ranked with the big boys? Let's look at the 2002 stats of the guys who jump to mind whenever I think "#1 starter":

Name            W   L   ERA   WHIP   K/9    BB/9

R. Johnson     24   5   2.32  1.03   11.56  2.45

C. Schilling   23   7   3.23  0.97   10.97  1.14

P. Martinez    20   4   2.26  0.92   10.79  1.80

G. Maddux      16   6   2.62  1.20    5.33  2.03

Schmidt	      13   8   3.45  1.19    9.45  3.54

Schmidt is in that ballpark this season, as early as it is. If he can walk about one less hitter per nine innings, and keep his other stats at or above their current levels, and stay healthy, Schmidt could win 20 games this year. Schmidt has not proved himself to be a durable pitcher thus far in his career; that is probably the biggest concern. Everything else tells me that the man is shaping up to be one of the Big Boys. Remember, Sabean got him for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong--and he got half a season of John Vander Wal as well. This could be one of the best trades the Giants ever made, and I'm not forgetting Matt Williams for Jeff Kent and change.

Speaking of #1 pitchers, bad news for Randy Johnson. He's going to have his knee scoped, and will be out 3-6 weeks. This is his second trip to the disabled list already, both for the same knee. While he'll probably be in much better shape when he comes back, the D-Backs have to be hating life. Schilling has also made a trip to the DL for his appendectomy. Without those two Big Boys to anchor their rotation all year, Arizona will likely miss the playoffs.

Jefferson 10:46 AM

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