Wednesday, April 30, 2003

 

While we drove home from last night's Giants' game, we listened to the postgame radio show. One of the guys asked what was more frustrating--getting no-hit, or losing a game after leaving 16 men on base. Everyone agreed the latter was far more frustrating, and I can't help but agree. Barry Bonds reached base four times, and Jose Cruz Jr. reached base five times. Neither one of them scored. The Giants never got that two-out clutch base hit, or that lucky error, that characterized their awesome 13-1 start.

Our seats were in section 145, row 6. The arcade is definitely a different way to watch a game. Because it's so high, you get a nice view of the pitcher and the hitter. On the other hand, you're over 400 feet away from home plate, and you can't see anything near the right-field wall. We missed a couple of exciting plays (at least, I think they were exciting, from the crowd reaction) by Jose Cruz Jr. On the other hand, we got an outstanding look at every ball hit to center and left field, including Moises Alou's home run in the 8th inning. More disadvantages to the arcade: it's the windiest spot in Pac Bell Park, you can't see the out-of-town scoreboard at all, and restrooms are all a good hike away. I think I'd rather have a seat in the upper deck behind home plate.

A few quick observations before my lunch break expires:

* The only breaking balls Kerry Wood had any trouble with, both hit Barry Bonds. Coincidence? Doubt it.

* Neifi Perez is a fraud. He can't hit, and it takes him an hour and a half to throw the ball. He'll field it, take two or three unncessary steps, and then rifle the ball over just in time. He might think that makes him look good, but he'd be much better served just throwing the ball when he got it, instead of waiting to make it look good.

* Kirk Reuter struck out three Cubs, thereby doubling his season total to six. He also walked four batters, bringing his total to 14.

Jefferson 1:04 PM

Tuesday, April 29, 2003

 

Woohoo! I just got free tickets to tonight's Giants game. It's the return of Dusty Baker to Pac Bell Park! Even better, these tickets are for the arcade--that's the rows atop the right field wall. I've always wanted to sit up there, and this will be our first time. I also have tickets for tomorrow night, and for Saturday. I guess I like baseball, or something.

Jefferson 12:33 PM

Sunday, April 27, 2003

 

The Giants got no-hit today. This sucks. I'm glad I missed most of it to go to an A's game with my girlfriend.

The stories tonight will be about Kevin Millwood, and "his" no-hitter. No-hitters are almost always portrayed as an individual achievement, and a measure of a pitcher's skill. But are they really?

A couple of years ago over on Baseball Prospectus, Voros McCracken published a study that shows that there is no significant difference between major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls put into play. He explains it a lot better than I can, but the idea is pretty clear. Ignore the home runs, and the strikeouts, and the hit batsmen, none of which involve a batter putting a ball in play. Look at the success rate (batting average) of what's left--the grounders, the pop-ups, the fly balls, all of that. You'd think that for the better pitchers, the batting average on balls in play would be lower. But it's not. The numbers show that every pitcher is pretty much the same in that regard. What it really means is that strikeouts are the pitchers' best friend, as those are outs that are never put in play.

What about hitters, though? Are their batting averages on balls in play the same, too? No. McCracken found that better hitters have higher averages on balls in play. This makes sense. Of course not all major-league hitters have the same batting average! So what it boils down to, if I'm not totally mangling his ideas, is that the strikeouts are the realm of the pitcher, and everything else depends on the skill of the hitter, or the defense, or luck.

Think about what this means as regards a no-hitter. Unless a pitcher strikes everybody out (which has never happened), a no-hitter is not all about a pitcher's skill that day. It's about the failure of the hitters, or luck, or defense, or some combination of all three. The fewer strikeouts a pitcher gets in a no-hitter, the more this is the case.

To me, this is pretty radical, and hard to wrap my brain around. I suppose you could graph career K/9 and no-hit totals for a ton of pitchers and look to see if there's really a correlation there. Nolan Ryan's near the top of the K/9 list, and he has 7 no-hitters--but Randy Johnson is tops, but he only has one no-hitter in his long career. That's the same number as Bud Smith and Jose Jimenez. Koufax is fifth on the all-time K/9 list, though, and he had three no-hitters. So a cursory look says that strikeouts do help get no-hitters, but you still need to be lucky. That means there's still hope for that Kirk Rueter no-no.

Finally, if a no-hitter is really more about luck, does it matter to the guy who threw it? Probably not to Kevin Millwood, who I would imagine is having a heck of a party tonight.

Lost amongst the no-hitter hoopla was a good outing by Jesse Foppert. Foppert pitched 6 innings, giving up 3 hits, 4 walks and only 1 run, striking out 5. Any other day, he probably gets the win.

Jefferson 6:14 PM

 

Well, we didn't play Battlefleet Gothic last night. My friends and I got caught up in watching "The Replacements" on DVD. So I don't have any pics of miniature starships duking it out. I did finish a cave trolls and four Uruk-Hai archers yesterday. I will have to borrow my friend Amy's digital camera and take some pics of those.

Off to look for icons for the different kinds of content I'll be posting here.

Jefferson 9:40 AM

Friday, April 25, 2003

 

I was driving to our San Jose plant for some emergency PC repairs yesterday morning, and I was listening to the early sections of the Giants game. When they announced the lineup, I almost drive off the road.

Half the starting lineup was sitting out. Only one, J.T. Snow, was due to injury. So our lineup featured such stellar hitters as Neifi "El Malo" Perez (425 OPS after yesterday's game), Ruben Rivera (552 OPS), and slumping Edgardo Alfonzo (583 OPS). Riding the pine were Rich Aurilia (732 OPS), Marquis Grissom (687 OPS), and Snow (1055 OPS). True, the night before was a 13-inning marathon, and yesterday was an afternoon game, so some guys needed rest. And Barry Bonds (1206 OPS) was back, putting Marvin Benard (439 OPS) back on ice. But...but...half the starting lineup? Was Felipe insane?

And the Giants won easily, 3-1.

No, Alou wasn't insane. He was following his plan. During the series in Milwaukee, he did the same thing for the last game. Didn't matter it was only game #6, and the Giants were riding a five-game winning streak at the time. On day games following night games, and especially on travel days, Alou will rest his veterans. (The Giants won that game, as well.) Furthermore, Alou is making sure that everyone is getting a good chunk of playing time. Only Jose Cruz Jr. has played in all 21 games so far.

Here are the number of games and at-bats for the various reserves:

Perez 16/46
Galarraga 12/23
Benard 12/18
Rivera 11/25
Feliz 9/18
Torrealba 5/21

I don't have numbers for how many of those are starts, but it's significant, if my memory serves. If these numbers play out over the course of the whole season, Perez will play in well over 100 games, and The Big Cat and Benard will play in nearly 100 each. The top sub last year was Ramon Martinez, and he played in only 72 games in all of 2002. (This year, Martinez is with Dusty Baker and the Chicago Cubs, and has played in 10 games so far, with only 18 AB.)

Last year's bench was no great shakes, granted, but this edition has a few real bad hitters on it (Perez, Rivera, and more often than not Benard and Feliz). I think that Alou has a different philosophy than Dusty Baker in this regard. Dusty was renowned for giving his guys second, third and even fourth chances. This was considered part of how he won his players' loyalty. Alou so far plays his bench more than Baker, though. Will this work out for the Giants over the entire season? I have my doubts. The more at-bats you give to Neifi Perez instead of Ray Durham, the fewer runs you score. Late-inning defensive replacement? Yes, please. But aside from that, leave Perez on the bench.

Then again, the Giants got to the World Series last year playing such sluggers as Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Shawon Dunston, and Tom Goodwin. So what the heck do I know?

Jefferson 12:54 PM

Wednesday, April 23, 2003

 

Some baseball quick hits:

* I didn't see much of Jesse Foppert's first major league start last night, but from all accounts, he spent the first inning nibbling instead of going after hitters. Even so, the Pirates didn't get many solid hits off of him. And it was freaking cold in Pittsburgh. I'm not worried at all about Foppert. Sucks to be only 15-4 after starting 15-2, though. (How quickly we get spoiled!)

* Jason Schmidt's mother passed away yesterday after a long illness. Giants GM Brian Sabean's father passed away as well, two or three days ago. Finally, Bobby Bonds underwent surgery to remove a brain tumor. My condolences and best wishes go out to all of them. It's got to be hard for any of them to concentrate on a game at the moment.

* It's a red-letter day in Tampa--after beating the Blue Jays yesterday, the D-Rays have climbed out of last place.

* Then again, with everyone staring in stunned disbelief at how bad the Detroit Tigers are, maybe no one is paying attention to Tampa Bay anymore.

* If you're Miguel Tejada, are you happy you won the game with a homer, going 1-6 with an error? Or would you rather have gone 0-5 without the error, and thus had the A's win in regulation?

* The Expos are still in first place, but here comes Atlanta.

* If the Cubs win the NL Central, will Dusty Baker be a shoo-in for another Manager of the Year award?

---

And now, stepping away from baseball for a sec--one of my other passions is miniatures wargaming. My project for the last 18 months is painting up armies from the Lord of the Rings. After I finish the four elves on my tabletop, I'll post some pictures of what I've got done so far.

Saturday night Evyn MacDude and Gypsycomet are supposed to meet me for a couple rounds of Battlefleet Gothic. I'll post an after-action report with pics if we do. (Note to self: must assemble the Necron Tombship I bought last Saturday...)

Jefferson 12:26 PM

Tuesday, April 22, 2003

 

Why doesn't Rickey Henderson have a job?

Yeah, yeah, he's 44. Yeah, yeah, he has no power anymore. Yeah, yeah, he's just "hanging on."

But check this out. Here's Rickey's 2002 on-base and slugging percentages, compared to five other major league outfielders who still have jobs in 2003:

                     OBP   SLG

Rickey Henderson    .369  .352

Roger Cedeno, NYM   .318  .346

Doug Glanville, TEX .292  .344

Juan Pierre, FLA    .332  .343

Armando Rios, CWS   .319  .332

Ruben Rivera, SFG   .302  .310

All these guys had around 200 plate appearances last year. Do you think the Mets would rather have Rickey than Cedeno? I wish the Giants had Rickey instead of Ruben Rivera, that's for sure. Sure, an outfielder with a .352 slugging percentage isn't all that great. But Rickey was 43rd among all major league outfielders in on-base percentage. That's ALL major league outfielders, including the scrubbinis. A guy who can get on base is valuable, no matter what his age.

Yeah, I hear you--"but all those other guys suck!" Yeah, they do. Point is, he's better than them. Better enough that some team needing a lift should give him a call.

What teams, you ask? Well, I don't claim to have the skill set of a major league general manager, but I can look up stats with the best of them...

                     OBP   SLG

Rickey Henderson    .369  .352

2003 Detroit Tigers .247  .245

2003 NY Mets        .303  .356

So...why doesn't Rickey Henderson have a job again?

Jefferson 2:07 PM

Monday, April 21, 2003

 

Off days suck. No Giants game to look forward to tonight, and no real desire to reflect on the last game.

I know! Let's have a spin through the rest of the NL West and see how they're faring.

Colorado: Very quietly having a great April. If it weren't for the outrageous starts by San Francisco, Kansas City and Yankees, they'd be a big story. That story would be about how well they're pitching at Coors Field. Their home ERA is 3.98. Their away ERA is 5.00. No, I don't have that backwards. It's very early yet, so this may not mean anything. They've allowed four or fewer runs in six of their nine games--three vs. Arizona, twice vs. San Diego, and once vs. St. Louis. Arizona can't hit anyway, and neither can San Diego. I'm guessing their overall ERA will go back up over the next month.

Los Angeles: Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort are healthy and pitching acceptably. The Dodgers' overall ERA is an excellent 3.32. Among their starting pitchers, only Nomo is below that number--the Dodgers relievers are pitching better than the starters. In fact, their bullpen has 3 of the Dodgers' 8 wins. Looks to me like the pen is keeping the Dodgers in a lot of games, and making up for their terrible offense. Even after last night's blowout, the team OPS is 685. Better than the Tigers, but not nearly good enough to contend. If the Dodgers want to be in it in September, they have to hit a lot better.

San Diego: The Giants and the Rockies have used the Padres as a punching bag. Phil Nevin is out for the year, a pioneer in this year's shoulder separation fashion trend. If it weren't for the Dodgers, against whom the Padres are 4-3, the Padres would have a truly awful record. Their offense is slightly better than Arizona or Los Angeles, but that's balanced by a team 5.29 ERA. I wouldn't be surprised if they finish dead last.

Arizona: I used to really like Bob Brenly before he became the D-Backs' manager, so I do feel a little sorry for him. This year, the question was whether or not Arizona would find that Third Pitcher to add to Johnson & Schilling. Now they're wondering if they have a Johnson & Schilling. Johnson is suffering from knee soreness (and is now on the DL), and Schilling just had his appendix out (which has nothing to do with his poor start). The pair are 1-4. Kim, converted to a starter, is pitching well enough (3.75 ERA) to be solid #3 behind Johnson & Schilling. If the D-Backs' hitters didn't stink almost as much as the Dodgers, it might even matter. You have to wonder if they regret trading Durazo, who is hitting better than any Diamondback.

The Giants will come back to earth, but so will the Rockies. Hard to see either Arizona or San Diego making a serious run at the playoffs at this point. The Dodgers could rise out of this mess if McGriff starts hitting. Will they make up an early 9-game deficit, though? It'll be tough. After three weeks, the Giants look like they're going to win the West in a walk. Of course, during the seventh inning of Game 6 of the 2002 World Series, the Giants looked like they'd win that easily, too.

Jefferson 11:51 AM

Sunday, April 20, 2003

 

Hi there,

You might remember my saying a few months back that I wasn't going to turn Skaldheim into a blog.

I am a big fat liar. It turns out that what I've been wanting to post here for the last few months fits the blog style pretty well. Updating the site manually was turning into a huge pain in the ass. My friend Nora from Denmark recommended a few auto-bloggers, and this is the one I chose. It took me about 5 minutes to set this up. Thanks, Nora!

Anyway, most of the old Skaldheim site is accessible through the links to the left. A lot of it is a mess. I may or may not clean it up. I will be fiddling with this new front page, adding my logo back, spiffing it up, if not melting it accidentally. Expect far more frequent updates, but that is not saying much!

Giants got blown out tonight, 16-4. That number still isn't quite as lopsided as their win-loss record, which is now 15-3.

Jefferson 8:40 PM

 

Here's what was on the front page before I changed Skaldheim into a Blogger monstrosity:

April 19, 2003

Okay, I guess I am going to be turning this into a blog of sorts. If I get serious about this, I may change the site around radically. If anyone has recommendations, let me know.

This morning's Giants news is bad if you're Robb Nen. After undergoing a second surgical procedure on his shoulder, he's gone for the year. Sure, they're not saying it plainly, but if they "rush" him back in 4-5 months again, he won't be throwing until September. I don't see how he'll be Robb Nen, star closer, again until next year. Until then, the Giants will be without that Ace Closer that every team absolutely, positively needs. The Giants are therefore doomed to blowing incredible numbers of saves, losing a lot of those games, and finishing last in the division.

Yeah, right.

Borrowing a trick from Rob Neyer, (and with thanks to Baseball Reference) let's give you two stat lines for three Giants relief pitchers in 2002. We'll leave out the save totals. Let's see if you can tell me which one is the closer:

Player     G    ERA    W   L   IP     H    ER   BB   HR  SO

A          68   2.20   6   2   73.7   64   18   20   2   81

B          80   2.25   8   2   72.0   55   18   30   3   55

C          44   2.37   1   0   68.3   58   18   21   3   54 

Player A has a better strikeout/walk ratio, but Player B gave up fewer hits over more innings. Player C is similar to Player B, but walked as few as Player A. All three players allowed the same numbers of earned runs. Their ERAs are so close as to be essentially the same. Overall, you'd have to say it's a wash. You'd be happy having any of them coming out of the pen. Can you tell which of these three guys earned over $8 million for his performance, compared to the roughly $1.3 million for each of the others?

The answer is Player A. Robb Nen, your proven closer. Player B is Tim Worrell, who has been closing most of the games in Nen's absence. Player C is Jay Witasick, who is now a disabled San Diego Padre.

If Worrell can repeat his 2002 performance this year, then he will be a very capable, and maybe a complete, replacement for Robb Nen. This raises lots of interesting questions. Are the Giants paying Robb Nen too much for his 75 innings a year, or are they paying Tim Worrell too little? If the Giants had three guys in the pen last year like Nen, Worrell, and Witasick (not to mention Felix Rodriguez, who had a poor year in 2002 but is generally regarded as having "closer stuff"), then what makes Nen special? Only that he pitched the ninth inning. Worrell pitched the eighth inning, more often than not, and Witasick was the more nebulous "middle reliever." Isn't blowing a lead, in any inning, a bad thing? If so, then protecting a lead, in whatever inning, must be a good thing. I can buy that the pressure of the ninth inning is greater than that of, say, the 6th inning. But it's not seven times greater than the eighth inning. That's the only reason I can think for paying a closer seven times what you pay someone like Worrell.

Nen's contract dates back from 1998, which is pretty much a different era as far as salaries go. I think Worrell is probably underpaid at his rate, and that closers won't see $8-10 million deals very often in the future. But for this year, the Giants will probably do just fine with Worrell pitching the ninth. If he falters, they have Felix Rodriguez, who should be fully recovered from his finger injury last year. Joe Nathan has also impressed this year. You'd love to have Nen healthy and effective, but the Giants have enough arms that it won't be a major problem.

April 18, 2003

The San Francisco Giants are off to an amazing 14-2 start this season. It's their best start in 85 years, when the New York Giants went 18-1. They also won the last eight games of the 2002 regular season, so their regular season record is now 22 out of their last 24. This is pretty impressive, until you remember that the 1984 Detroit Tigers started the year 35-5. The Giants will have to win 21 of their next 24 to match that.

After the heartbreak of the 2002 World Series, this year's hot start is almost enough to give Giants fans what Alan Greenspan used to call "irrational exuberance." The '84 Tigers won the World Series, after all. But we don't have to look very far back to see how regular season dominance doesn't translate into World Series victories:

• 2002 New York Yankees: 103-58, AL East champs, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2002 Oakland Athletics, 103-59, AL West champs, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2002 Atlanta Braves, 101-59, NL East champs by 19 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2001 Seattle Mariners, 116-46, AL West champs by 14 games, lost in ALCS
  
• 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks, 100-62, NL West champs by 14 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 1999 Atlanta Braves, 103-59, NL East champs, swept in World Series by the Yankees
  
• 1998 Atlanta Braves, 106-56, NL East champs by 18 games, lost in NLCS
  
• 1998 Houston Astros, 102-60 NL Central champs by 12.5 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  

A quick start may help you blow through the regular season, but in the playoffs, the only wins that matter are the 11 you need to get the ring.

October 1, 2002

Another baseball bit for you today--a very quick take on this year's playoffs.
September 13, 2002

And now for something completely different. I still have no graphics, but I have something new for you to read! At long last, I am turning my vast and rusty writing skills towards one of my favorite things--baseball! Here's a little guide to Pacific Bell Park, wherein I blow my chances to get good seats next year.

Perhaps next week I might have a graphic to add to the front page. Just one. I can't overdo it, you know. It's bad for my health!

September 5, 2002

I was on vacation, so I'm a bit behind on posting new things. Today's new item is also concerning the RPG I'm running. This time, we turn to some common knowledge about dwarves.

August 15, 2002

I don't have a whole lot of days left in my tryout version of GoLive, so I hope to put up a few things before it expires. Too bad you can't buy GoLive as a separate package anymore. Adobe, can I just have it for free? No?? I suppose there's always BBEdit.

Please be assured that I'm not going to turn Skaldheim into a blog. But I will ramble a little bit.

You might remember this site once had graphics. Perhaps it will again, someday. For now, it's lean and mean, until I learn how to use the GIMP. For now, you'll have to settle for some boring plain HTML files. Today's selection are a few brief descriptions of early playing sessions in my Tales of T'Regnor D&D campaign:

Session 1 • Session 2 • Session 3 • Session 4 • Session 5

August 10, 2002

Well, time to make a fresh start and do something completely new with this site. Who knows when I'll get it done???

Anyway, when I do get going, I want to put up occasions bits of whatever from whatever I'm working on. Right now, here's some things from an RPG I'm currently running:

Badgers as a PC race

Deities of Ardovia

Jefferson 8:14 PM

 

This is a test post! Watch me as I fumble around with scripts I did not create!

Jefferson 7:43 PM