Thursday, July 14, 2005

 

Fear and Loathing After the Break

Those goddamned San Diego Padres. You know, if they were a real first-place team, with a real first-place record, the Giants would be about 250 games back. But no. Those pathetic Padres are giving everyone else in the division hope, including those who have no business messing around with dangerous things like expired milk, hope and rocket science.

So here are the Giants, with a GM who is in "acquisition mode." That's doubletalk for "we think we have a chance, and we're going for it." If all you do is look at the "GB" column in the standings, it's easy to delude yourself. Once you start deluding yourself, you start buying Rationalization Lite in the handy six-pack containers. You can find yourself thinking nonsense like this:

"Brett Tomko is always better in the second half!" You hear this a lot, and a cursory look at recent stats might lead you to believe it:

Brett Tomko, 2002-2005
                       ERA    K/9    WHIP   BB/9   HR/9
Pre All-Star Break     4.87   5.10   1.48   2.89   1.23
Post All-Star Break    4.30   5.32   1.30   2.48   1.32

That's a pretty good bump! But it's illusory. Going back to the 1997 season, I found only four seasons where Tomko had significant playing time after the break, and significantly improved: 1998, 1999, 2003 and 2004. In 1997 and 2002, he was a lot worse--1.50 ERA worse--in the second half. In 2000, not much of a change. In 2001, he didn't play enough for the numbers to matter.

If a guy is better half the time, about the same a quarter of the time, and tanks the rest of the time, there's no pattern. It's a crap shoot. We have no clue what Tomko is going to do in the second half. Counting on him to repeat last year's improvement is like believing in the Tooth Fairy. You might find a buck under your pillow, but it was your parents all along, and someday they'll break the bad news to you anyway.

"Schmidt will turn it around! He's not really this bad." From August 2001 until August 2004, Jason Schmidt was a very good pitcher. At his best, he was a favorite to win the Cy Young. Before August 2001, when he arrived in San Francisco, and after his groin injury last year, he has been a mediocre pitcher.

The Schmidt we're seeing now is the Pittsburgh edition: too many walks, a few too many homers, and not quite enough strikeouts to make up for his flaws. Overall, a .500 pitcher with flashes of brilliance. Yes, he can be this mediocre for the rest of the season. In fact, unless he proves otherwise by putting together a solid month of starts, you have to believe that Schmidt has already peaked.

It is interesting to note, though, that Schmidt's best years coincided quite nicely with the time he has played with Bonds in the lineup. Which leads us to our next delusion:

"Barry Bonds will come back and save the day!" Sure he will. The day you see him taking actual batting practice, we'll have this conversation. Until then, he's a 41-year-old dude with bad knees who hasn't played baseball in nearly a year. Rust never sleeps. The odds of Barry making a difference in this year's playoff race is about the same as me winning the World Series of Poker.

"If we have a fire sale, the fans will stay away in droves!!" They already are. The no-show rate seems higher than ever, based on what I've seen and heard. Here's the bigger risk: if you trade off the kids now for a desperate run, you risk turning a one-year dip into a five-year disaster. Without Bonds, and without a winning team, and with higher season ticket prices looming, the cell-phone-sucking fans will not show up to games. The fans will forgive and forget 2005; they'll blame it on Barry's injuries and leave it at that. If the team turns into the Royals, forget it.

That's why it's better to have the fire sale, and accelerate the rebuilding. Make sure the team is good for years to come. Don't listen to the nonsense, Brian Sabean. Pretend the Padres don't suck. Realize the Giants are 13 games under .500. Bite the fucking bullet, put it in the gun and shoot this season in the head. Bury 2005, and make 2006 a year to remember.

Jefferson 1:23 PM

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