Friday, June 24, 2005

 

The Truck

I hate to gloat. Ah hell, who am I kidding? I love to gloat. Didn't I say a few weeks ago that the roster was going to get overhauled, and it was time to back up the truck? Well, guess what. The U-Haul has made several trips already, though it's been cleverly disguised as a Coit cleaning crew. Twenty percent of the roster has changed since my last post:

* Al Levine (age 37, 1.94 WHIP, 9.58 ERA) was tossed into a burlap sack and heaved into the dump truck. It is unclear at this time if he was then beaten with switches or not. Taking his place: rookie Jack Taschner (age 27, 1.06 WHIP, 0.95 ERA with Fresno).

* Jim Brower (age 32, 1.77 WHIP, 5.94 ERA) was stripped of his commission and sent to the salt mines. Jesse Foppert (age 27, 1.16 WHIP, 4.40 ERA) came up and made two starts before ending up in the bullpen, effectively taking Brower's spot.

* Edgardo Alfonzo (estimated age 31, 306/370/403) injured his quadriceps, which caused Pedro Feliz to move back to third base. Taking Pedro's place in the outfield? Fresno slugger Todd Linden (age 24, 326/446/692 in Fresno).

* Marquis Grissom (age 38, 211/246/293) very conveniently continued to have a sore hamstring, or a hangnail, or something, and was shelved. Jason Ellison (age 27, 310/370/460) is the new starting center fielder, and Alex Sanchez (age 28, 346/373/466 in 133 AB) your backup.

* LaTroy Hawkins (age 32, 1.52 WHIP, 5.48 ERA) developed a numb pitching arm, which is also rather convenient. Replacing him, former Diamondback Brandon Puffer (age 29, 1.30 WHIP, 3.99 ERA in Fresno).

Younger guys, all around. Everyone has seen that much. Better guys all around? Maybe--time will tell. The thing you should note about all these moves is that they haven't cost the Giants anything. Sabean hasn't freaked out and shipped out more prospects for middle relievers. Instead, he's doing what he should have done in the first place--sort out his cards and play the best hand he has. Even Sanchez is effectively free, costing only about a quarter million for the rest of this year. Sabean isn't doing anything he might regret, leaving all his options open while still trying to improve the team in the short term.

The next step is to see if this hand is one to play, or one to fold. The answer might seem hard to read. The Giants have stopped the bleeding, but they haven't gained any ground either. The whole division is struggling, and it's tempting to think the Giants might actually come back.

Which leads us to Barry.

The one transaction Sabean and all Giants are dying to make is this: "Activated Barry Bonds, outfielder, from the 60-day disabled list. Released Marquis Grissom, outfielder." Nobody knows when Bonds will come back, how much he'll play, or how well he'll play. On the one hand, you don't want to sell your players off too soon, for fear that Barry comes back and rampages through the league once again. On the other hand, you don't want to stand pat, and then have Barry not be a factor, which would leave the Giants in much worse shape for 2006.

This is why Sabean is so carefully treading water. He has to wait on Bonds. I can understand if Bonds doesn't want to tell the media when he might be back. If he's keeping Sabean in the dark, too, he's really hurting the organization.

Of course, uncertainty is a part of any GM's job. Every trade and every move is filled with it. That's why, in the end, you have to play the percentages. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Giants have a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

Two. Freaking. Percent.

The Giants, therefore, are not done with the truck.

Jefferson 7:44 PM

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