Tuesday, June 28, 2005

 

Thinking Schmitty Thoughts

Jason Schmidt takes the mound tonight for the Giants. He brings with him deep questions. Colossal questions of momentous import that concern, basically, the whole fabric of our culture. Are his last two very good starts a sign that the Cy Young caliber Schmidt is back for good? Or is this just a temporary reprieve, to be followed by long years of wildness, suckitude and "whatever happened to" obscurity?

The biggest question of all was only a whisper a few weeks ago. It was a joke, told by sadistic wags who wanted to see their Giants-fan friends cringe. Now, it's being asked out loud, in front of polite company.

Are the Giants going to trade Jason Schmidt? More to the point, why would they?

Two reasons come to mind: money and skill. In 2006, the Giants are going to either buy out Schmidt's contract for $3.5 million, or pay him $10.5 million to pitch for them. For the rest of 2005, the Giants are on the hook for over $4 million. If the dominant Schmidt is gone for good, then that's $7.5 million in the toilet. Not only is that a lot of money to flush away, but that toilet's going to jam up something fierce.

On the other hand, what if Schmidt really has turned the corner? They would get a season and a half of Cy Young for $14.5 million. That's a bargain, you would think.

Let me roll out a hypothetical for you. It's 2006. Let's say Barry Bonds is effectively done. No more Superman; instead, we get a replay of Willie McCovey's last season or two. Alou, Vizquel, Alfonzo, Durham and Snow all get a year older, and a year worse. Ellison, Niekro, and Linden don't pan out. Feliz...well, stays Feliz. (Don't tell me that's impossible, either--you've seen as many Giants hitting prospects flame out as I have.) Or maybe Sabean makes some trades, but his magic touch is still backfiring. You think this year is bad? Sure, we have SuperSchmidt every fifth day. Unfortunately, the phrase that comes to mind is "lipstick on a pig." After '06, Schmidt is a free agent, and do you think he will want to hang around?

So maybe you can see why it's not so crazy to trade him now, and get some more pieces for a rebuilding effort.

All right, we trade Schmidt. What is our rotation for 2006? Lowry, Foppert, and...um...right. Maybe Cain is ready to come up next year, and maybe you can push up Valdez. Yikes. Maybe trading Schmidt would be crazy after all!

The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but the pitching is especially heinous. The team ERA is 5.19, which is a cry for help if I've ever seen one. Whatever they decide to do with Schmidt, should be part of a thoughtful plan to rebuild the pitching staff. If the Orioles come calling, offering their best three pitching prospects (I assume they have some that don't suck...I could be wrong) for Schmidt, and the Giants don't have to throw in cash? I'd take that call. Hell, I'd probably lay down a red carpet. Sure, 2006 would be a total rebuilding year, but the organization needs one.

Sabean is not the type to give up on 2006 this far in advance, though. He has a goal, either dictated from on high or derived from his own ethos, to have the Giants poised to contend each year. Trading Schmidt, I believe, would be too much of a surrender for Sabean to stomach. More likely, he'll try to trade the less valuable veterans (Durham, Alfonzo, Matheny) and try to restock with free agents again this winter.

Days until the trading deadline: 33.

Jefferson 2:19 PM

|