Monday, July 12, 2004

 

The Midseason (Don't Fear The Reaper)

Okay, everyone, listen up. Quick show of hands out there in blogland.

Everyone who thought, before the season started, that the Giants starting shortstop would be batting over .300 at the break, raise your hand.

Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Okay, who thought the Giants would be very near the top of the league in runs scored?

Bueller?

Okay, who thought before the season that at this point, only two teams in all of baseball would have more wins than the San Francisco Giants?

Uh-huh. No, I didn't raise my hand either.

And really, in your wildest dreams, did you think that Barry Bonds would have the best OPS (1422) of his entire career? At age 40?

Before the season, there was a lot of concern about the Giants offense. Quite a lot. In April, the offense couldn't score worth a damn. Since then, the team made two significant tweaks. First, they let Neifi Perez play himself out of a starting job. That cleared the way for the "average is SO much better than crap" Deivi Cruz. Second, they released Jeffrey Hammonds just in time for Michael Tucker to get hot.

Additionally, the Giants didn't panic on either Edgardo Alfonzo or A.J. Pierzynski. They reckoned both would rebound from their horrible Aprils, and both have. End result: the Giants offense is third in the NL in runs scored and fourth in OPS. Consider that Colorado is one of the teams ahead of them, and you can see the Giants offense is doing just fine.

The real problem has been the pitching. There just hasn't been a surprise amongst the newcomers; no Deivi Cruz-like godsend. The Giants have the best starting pitcher in the league, Jason Schmidt. Then they have four mediocre to poor guys to fill out the rotation. (Although Jerome Williams gets extra credit for his youth, and his signs of great promise.) Since the rotation can't pitch deep into games, the bullpen is getting worked to death. Even worse, the bullpen isn't all that solid to begin with, outside of maybe Scott Eyre and (yes) Felix Rodriguez.

Bottom line, you have a pitching staff with a 4.41 ERA, "good" for 11th in the National League. This is the area that needs the most attention. Without substantial improvement, pitching is what will keep the Giants from making the postseason, or going deep into October. Ideally, the Giants need a solid #2 pitcher and a solid closer. Word is, the Giants will be looking for help from Fresno, in the form of Kevin Correia in the bullpen and Noah Lowry in the rotation. Those moves could very well help, but will they be enough? Sabean certainly won't bet the house on it. The Giants will continue to look for pitching via a trade.

Finally, the defense has been disappointing. I really thought that the D would be the team's strong suit. Right field has suffered greatly from the loss of Jose Cruz Jr. Ray Durham has looked terrible recently, and Barry Bonds is a shadow of his former Gold Glove-winning self in left field. There's not much the team can do on this front, I think, except ask for more strikeouts from the pitching staff.

So, where are the Giants exactly? At the nexus of all possibilities. This team could end up in last place if the demons of April return. If a trade solidifies the pitching, and the hitting keeps up its recent pace, the World Series is entirely possible. Seriously.

What do I expect to happen? A modest trade or two in the next couple of weeks, followed by a rather harrowing, down-to-the-wire race with the Dodgers and Padres. I think this team squeaks into the postseason, gets people's hopes up, only to be crushed by the Cardinals in the opening round.

But then again, what do I know? I thought this team was done in April.

Jefferson 8:08 AM

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