Wednesday, July 07, 2004

 

Closer

That was simply brutal.

If you don't know what "that" I'm referring to, you're evidently not a Giants fan. I am referring to the ritual sacrifice of a Giants victory by that crew of Cthulhu cultists we usually call the "bullpen." It was bloody, messy and horrific to watch. (Or listen to, in my case, since the TV broadcast was on the nonexistent Fox Sports Net Plus.)

There's been a lot of kvetching locally about Felix Rodriguez being the root of all blown saves. I disagree. If you want to see the real weakness in this bullpen, you have to look closer. You have to look AT the closer.

Matt Herges, step forward and be judged.

Let's play a little Rob Neyer style game. I'm going to give you some naked pitching stats, and you tell me who you think should be the closer.

IP    H   ER   HR   BB   K   ERA   WHIP  K/9

52.2  56  23    4   18   35  3.93  1.41  5.98

41.1  55  23    5   13   25  5.01  1.65  5.44

38.1  36  14    5   13   26  3.29  1.28  6.10

22.1  11  8     5   14   19  3.22  1.12  7.66

There's no classic Robb Nens in this bunch, but they're not all terrible either. They all give up the longball a bit too much, but ERAs in the 3's are nothing to sneeze at. The last guy in particular has a pretty good line for a closer--great strikeout rate, not a ton of innings pitched, outstanding WHIP. He walks too many, but makes up for that by being very stingy with the hits. Too bad half the hits he gives up are homers, though. But that's Scott Eyre, who is not your closer.

The next to last guy is almost as good. His walk rate is much better, though his strikeouts are fewer per inning. His numbers this year are not great closer stuff, but he's the second best in this bunch. Oh yeah, he's the much-maligned Felix Rodriguez.

The guy with at the top is your mediocre setup guy Jim Brower. But he's still better than the remaining line, who is your Giants closer, Matt Herges.

A closer usually throws one inning, with a 1, 2 or 3-run lead. Converting Herges' stats into per-inning, we get:

1.33 H, 0.56 ER, 0.12 HR, 0.31 BB, 0.60 K

In a "typical" Herges save opportunity, he'll give up one hit, half a run, a third of a walk, and get half a strikeout. Except you can't have half a run. So every other inning, Herges will give up a run. Yes, that means that half the time, Herges will blow a one-run lead. Half the time! And nearly every time, he's going to put pressure on his own defense because he isn't going to strike out batters. Given the frailties shown by the Giants defense recently, this is not a good thing.

How about a real good closer, like Robb Nen in his last year? Even injured towards the end of the year, here's a typical Nen inning, vintage 2002:

0.87 H, 0.24 ER, 0.02 HR, 0.27 BB, 1.10 K

That's right. Herges is about half the closer that Nen was, even when Nen wasn't at his best.

Bottom line? Herges is not capable of being a major league closer. Any of the three other gentlemen--Rodriguez, Eyre or Brower--would do a better job, which admittedly isn't saying much in some cases.

It's time for a change.

Jefferson 7:51 AM

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