Saturday, May 08, 2004

 

Happy Pete and the Prisoner of Stranded Bonds

Last night, Pedro Feliz showed why it is critically important to have a really good hitter batting behind Barry Bonds. Bonds is going to get walked a lot. This may come as a shock to you, but it's true. It's just a given that Bonds will be put on base half the time he comes up, and that adult diaper sales go up whenever the Giants come to town. What's really important is what the guy behind Bonds does with the free baserunner. (Alex over at El Lefty Malo is keeping track of what happens in these 'DNB' situations--excellent work, go check it out!)

Usually, what that #5 hitter does is, well, jack shit. Last night, Happy Pete homered and singled after Bonds was walked. Not surprisingly, the Giants won that game, 6-1. That's the answer, obviously! Bat Pedro Feliz fifth and watch the dividends roll in.

Not so fast. Putting Feliz in that spot is like putting your chips on the '0' on a roulette wheel. Most of the time you're going to come up empty, but every now and again you're going to hit it big. Over his career, Feliz makes an out 3 out of every 4 times he goes to the plate. Even in baseball terms, that's a lot of outs. About one time out of 30, he'll hit a home run. The numbers for 2004 are a touch better--his on-base percentage is .307 and he hits a home run roughly every 20 plate appearances. The end result? Bonds gets left on base. A lot.

Everybody gets blinded by Bonds' power, which is obviously staggering. But the way opposing managers treat him renders him effectively into a leadoff hitter. He's going to be on base a ton, and you know he's going to be on base a ton. Why not structure your batting order accordingly? Put someone behind him who hits for average and makes few outs, and then put a power hitter deeper behind him.

Of course, the Giants are short on both kinds of hitters, which really renders the whole argument "moo," as Joey from "Friends" would say. ("It's like a cow's opinion--it just doesn't matter.") But with the guys we've got, this is the lineup card I'd fill out, if they didn't arrest me for breaking into Felipe Alou's office:

Durham 2B
Bonds LF
Grissom CF
Feliz 1B (after this, I really have to hold my nose)
Dallimore or Alfonzo 3B
TuckHammondMohr RF
Pierzynski/Torrealba C
D. Cruz SS
pitcher

Then I'd hit the liquor cabinet something fierce.

Jefferson 9:59 AM

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