Sunday, April 04, 2004

 

Rosters and Records

The Giants have set their 25-man roster for the 2004 season. Most remarkable is that David Aardsma has made the club. The Giants are not known for rushing A-ball pitchers to the bigs, at least not unless it's an emergency with lots of injuries to the staff. So in this case, it makes perfect sense. Seriously, though, Aardsma won the spot in the bullpen over new acquisitions Mike Crudale and old hands like Chad Zerbe, who was designated for assignment. Looks like the kid has impressed the hell out of Sabean and Alou; I wish him great success.

When Aardsma pitches in his first game, he will break Henry Aaron's all-time record. No, not the one that Barry Bonds is chasing (though that would explain the quick promotion). No, this is the record that not even Bonds was born to beat. In the all-time alphabetical list of Major League Baseball players, Aaron has long been first. When he enters his first game, though, Aardsma will take his place.

Of course, that Bonds fellow is chasing down Aaron in that somewhat more obscure category of career home runs. While a lot of ink, trees and tears have fallen this winter talking about the legal and pharmaceutical gossip, the actual chase itself has almost been forgotten. Let's reset the situation:

Hank Aaron 755
Babe Ruth 714
Willie Mays 660
Barry Bonds 658

Barry needs only 3 home runs to pass his godfather. He could conceivably do it before the Giants home opener. The Giants open the season in Minute "Made For Homers" Park. Three homers in the first three games? Very possible. Bonds has even been hot in spring training recently. Can you imagine Barry Bonds hitting #661 off of Roger Clemens on Wednesday? That would be amazing.

To join the 700 homer club, Bonds will need to crank 42 home runs this season. In his last four seasons, Bonds has hit 49, 73, 46 and 45 home runs. Hitting 42 would seem almost automatic, but Bonds has to avoid injury and the progression of age. Bonds turns 40 this year. Hitting 42 homers when you're forty years old is nearly unheard of. Of course, Bonds specializes in accomplishing the unheard of.

Could Barry catch the Bambino this year? That would require hitting 56 home runs this year. Possible? I can imagine it, but I would be extremely shocked. It would make for a great story, and a real conundrum for the "Bonds is juicing" crowd.

It's far more reasonable to expect 30-35 home runs this year. Bonds played only 130 games last year. Even though a dozen of those, or thereabouts, were due to personal issues instead of injury, it's not realistic to expect him to play 140-150 games this year. More likely age and injury will reduce his playing time, and his effectiveness.

I would, however, love to be wrong.

Bonds is closing in on a few other statisical milestones. If he scores only 59 more runs this year, he will join the 2000-runs-scored club, which has only six other members, led by the immortal Rickey Henderson. Assuming Rickey does not play this year, Bonds needs only 120 walks to tie him for the career walks crown. He's also 118 RBI away from tying Giants great Mel Ott for 10th in all-time RBI. He might also crack the top 25 in career games played. (That's if he plays in 131 games this year, which would be a good omen for the Giants' season.)

Of course, there are 23 other guys on the roster aside from Aardsma and Bonds. If I don't get sucked into endless hours of Final Fantasy XI today, I'll post some comments about the rest of the squad. Particularly, how April for the 2004 Giants is like extended spring training....

Jefferson 9:29 AM

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