Wednesday, March 31, 2004

 

Cactus League is Over!

All right, the Cactus League is over! Time for some real games. How did we do in Arizona, anyway? Okay, 9-17 is not so good. In fact, that's the worst record of all the major league clubs. Damn.

Well, no big deal, it's only spring, and spring really doesn't count for much. It's what will happen in the regular season that matters. So what do people think of the Giants this year? Let's flip around the Web and look. Hmm...

Baseball Prospectus used their PECOTA projections and said the Giants will go 82-80 and finish two games out of first. Behind the Padres. Ouch. Well, two games out at least gives us a fighting chance, right?

Hmm, on the same site Steven Goldman grades the Giants as a C- team. Below average, and worse than both Arizona and San Diego. Good grief!

Sports Illustrated says the Giants will finish second, behind the Snakes, and miss the playoffs. No!!

Oh, wait, here's one I like: MSNBC predicts first place and an 88-74 record for the Giants. Still, that's a drop of twelve wins.

No doubt about it, this is going to be a difficult year for Giants fans who have gotten used to 90+ win seasons. Between injuries and a loss of talent around the diamond, you just can't compare this year's squad to the one that won 100 games in 2003, or the one that almost won the World Series in 2002. That's okay, because everyone else in the division is no better than we are. 85 wins just might take it. As we've seen the last couple of years, if you can stay in the race and get hot going into the playoffs, you don't have to have the world's best lineup to win a Series.

But you have to stay in it. This Giants team, if things go wrong, could fall out of contention far earlier than we're used to. If things go right, though, it could be another great year.

So, here are the good signs I'll be looking for this season:

1) The injury bug goes away, and stays away. I'm not saying that Robb Nen has to come back and be effective; you really have to leave him out of any projections. I mean that the starters need to stay in the lineup, especially Bonds, Durham, Alfonzo, and Schmidt. The Giants simply cannot afford protracted injuries to any of those four.

2) The good hitters have at least career-average years. I don't expect Barry to hit 40 homers again or put up a .500 OBP. But he should still be very productive. More to the point, Durham, Alfonzo and Grissom cannot have down years. If those four guys are chugging along, the offense will at least be serviceable.

3) One of the new guys has a career year at the plate. Projections for Hammonds, Tucker, Mohr, Perez, et al are not very reassuring. But they're just projections. If one of these offseason moves turns up aces, then things will get a lot easier. You can include Pedro Feliz in here--if he pops up with 30 HRs and an OBP over .300, I'll be ecstatic.

4) For my keys to the pitching staff, I'm looking towards Jerome Williams, Brett Tomko and Jim Brower. Williams and Brower need to build upon the good results they got during the regular season last year. Brower was excellent in long relief and spot starts. Williams showed real flashes of brilliance. Tomko was brought in to eat up innings; if he can do that, it takes a lot of stress off the newly rebuilt bullpen. Oh, and Schmidt has to have another great year, of course.

But who knows--the Giants have added five new pitchers in the last 24 hours, so maybe the real keys are Franklin, Estrella, Crudale, Veres, and...and...brand new, just out of the wrapping paper, 27-year-old lefthander Kevin Walker!!!

You see? I was right. Spring results really don't count...when you replace half the pitching staff at the last minute, at least.

Next time: a completely obvious preview of Barry Bonds' 2004 season.

Jefferson 5:52 PM

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