Friday, February 06, 2004

 

And Now, The Starting Lineup for Your 2004 San Francisco Giants

Spring training is so close, I can almost smell it...

Today brings us the ceremonial first sighting of manager Felipe Alou, via a Henry Schulman piece in the San Francisco Chronicle. Schulman relates that Alou has decided to bat Barry Bonds third, returning him to his traditional spot. The rest of his projected starting lineup looks something like this:

1) 2B Durham (.275/.360/.430)
2) 1B Snow (.246/.361/.386)
3) LF Bonds (.309/.504/.638)
4) 3B Alfonzo (.271/.357/.410)
5-6-7) some combo of Pierzynski (.315/.361/.466), Grissom (.271/.302/.430), Mohr (.277/.344/.417), Hammonds (.245/.327/.389), and Feliz (.245/.282/.454)
8) SS Perez (.238/.269/.316)
9) Pitcher

The batting numbers are ZiPS projections from Baseball Primer. Honestly, I have a hard time telling what set of projections to use, but between ZiPS and PECOTA, I'm convinced that they all have bizarre names, if nothing else. Like all projections, they're perfectly accurate until Opening Day; after that, reality will assert itself.

More disclaimers: if you watched Felipe Alou construct lineups last year, you know he doesn't like to run out the same guys day after day. So any discussion of lineups will only apply to the 2 out of 3 days when the regulars are all playing, and maybe not even then. With that out of the way, let's move on.

The perennial problem for the Giants is who should bat behind Bonds. (I disagree that this is the main problem, but more later about that.) Years of watching Bonds walk 150-200 times per annum have driven many Giants fans to the brink of their sanity. "If only," we cry or sob, "we had a real power hitter behind Barry, those wicked managers would order that Barry be given more pitches to hit! Alas!" And we rend our clothes and hurl half-empty bottles of whiskey at our televisions, and fall asleep dreaming of Barry hitting 100 HRs and getting 200 RBIs, if only...

Well, I hate to break it to everyone, but the fear of Bonds is now so deep-seeded that I doubt anyone save A-Rod could really "protect" Barry.

"But what about Vlad? Damn that Sabean, he has betrayed us!"

Vlad would make managers think twice about walking Barry...but they'd do it anyway. Maybe not as many intentional walks, and more half-assed pitching around. You're just more likely to get Vlad to chase bad balls than Barry. A lot of managers would rather take that chance, I think. And more to the point--we didn't sign Vlad; we never had a chance to do so; and we never will. I really wanted to get him too, but it's time to accept it and move on.

Given what we have, and considering his strong second half, Alfonzo is currently the best choice to hit behind Barry. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pierzynski ends up taking over that role, though. If Alfonzo gets off to another slow start, it could get ugly fast. Trade rumors, losing streaks, Ralph Barbieri's questions stretching out to 10 minutes instead of 8...we just don't want to see that happen. So I'm wishing that Alfonzo has a hot start. We could have a pretty decent 1-5, I think. It's the bottom of the order that's going to try fans' patience this year.

Back to The Barry Question. I believe that if you want to keep guys from walking Barry, then you want to have lots of guys on base in front of Barry. No matter how scared they are, managers have a much harder time intentionally walking people with two guys on than with one.

At last, the Giants will have two strong on-base guys in front of Bonds, with no black holes like Aurilia or Grissom in the way. Snow may not be your prototypical mashing first basemen, but he's learned some plate discipline the last two seasons. He gets his slow ass on base better than any other Giant who's not Barry, and that's important.

How important? Let's pretend for a minute that the results of each at-bat are random. I know it's not really true, but it's close enough for this exercise. Both JT and Durham are "scheduled" by ZiPS for roughly a .360 on-base average. That means a 36% of getting on base for each guy, and conversely a 64% chance each of making an out. When these two lead off an inning, here's what roughly Barry will find when he comes to bat:

46.08% 1 out, 1 on
40.96% 2 outs, nobody on
12.96% no outs, 2 men on (or in)

Six times out of ten, Barry will have someone on to drive in, if J.T. and Ray haven't somehow scored already.

Now substitute Grissom with his projected .302 OBP for Snow:

44.67% 2 outs, nobody on
44.46% 1 out, 1 on
10.87% no outs, 2 men on (or in)

Now the most likely result for Barry is to come up with 2 out, nobody on. Only 55% of the time will he come up with men on to drive in. Over 150 first innings, that's about seven fewer baserunners. Over 550 plate appearances, that could be up to 27 fewer baserunners in front of Barry. That's what J.T. Snow batting second means to the Giants. Big kudos to Alou on this move.

(Note: I'm ignoring Snow and Grissom's left/right splits here; Grissom should bat 2nd when facing lefties. Will he? Dunno.)

Pedro Feliz is supposed to get several hundred at bats this season. All I can say to that is "ugh." Sure, over a full season he might hit 30 HRs, but it'll be an ugly 30 surrounded by a ton of wasted at-bats. I keep thinking that they're going to feature Feliz and use him as trade bait for something they'll really need later in the season. Say, a good starting pitcher, or the 2000 version of Ellis Burks.

Of course, there's still two months left until Opening Day. I still have the feeling Sabean is going to make another move before then, in which case I will have to rewrite this whole damn thing. But that's okay, Sabes; go out there and sign Greg Maddux anyway. I'm a big boy, I can deal with the disappointment....

Jefferson 9:24 AM

|