Sunday, September 28, 2003

 

Giants vs. Marlins NLDS Preview

I got my wish. The Marlins are coming to town. Let's break down the starters for each side and see who comes up looking better (all stats as of Sunday morning):

Starting Lineups

Left Field
Giants: Barry Bonds (.339/.528/.747)
Marlins: Jeff Conine (.283/.337/.460) or Miguel Cabrera (.268/.326/.470)

The best hitter on the planet. Jeff Conine. Hmm. Huge advantage to the Giants.

Center Field
Giants: Marquis Grissom (.300/.322/.468)
Marlins: Juan Pierre (.305/.361/.373, 64 SB/20 CS)

Pierre is a speedy slap hitter, but utterly lacking in power. Most of this steals came before the break; he's been thrown out on 33% of his steal attempts since. Grissom never met a pitch he didn't like. When he does make contact, though, he can hit it out with regularity. Still, thanks to the large number of outs he makes, I give the advantage to the Marlins.

Right Field
Giants: Jose Cruz Jr. (.250/.366/.414)
Marlins: Juan Encarnacion (.270/.314/.447)

Cruz is probably the most underrated player on the Giants. He gets on base, has a bit of power, and is turning in a Gold Glove season. Encarnacion is more of a typical outfielder who relies on driving the ball into the gaps. Cruz's defense and patience at the plate tips the scale. Advantage to Giants.

First Base
Giants: J.T. Snow (.272/.388/.419) and Andres Galarraga (.301/.352/.489)
Marlins: Derrek Lee (.271/.380/.509)

Lee feasts on left-handed pitching, and he hits a lot better away from Pro Player Stadium (.297/.388/.591) than he does at home (.241/.371/.420). I'm glad the Giants aren't starting any lefties at Pac Bell. Snow is having a quietly productive season between groin pulls; Galarraga is more effective against lefties. We'll probably see him start in Game 3 against Redman, and maybe against Willis in Game 4 as well. Overall, slight advantage to the Marlins.

Second Base
Giants: Ray Durham (.284/.364/.439)
Marlins: Luis Castillo (.314/.381/.397)

Castillo is a switch-hitter who definitely favors the right side of the plate. He has speed, but he will run his team out of rallies quite a lot (21 SB vs. 19 CS). He's been slumping in September. Durham, on the other hand, is having a pretty decent one. This one's a draw.

Third Base
Giants: Edgardo Alfonzo (.258/.333/.385)
Marlins: Mike Lowell (.277/.351/.531, DL), Miguel Cabrera (.268/.326/.470)

Mike Lowell comes off the DL today, for the final game of the regular season. The big question is how well he will be able to play. If he's 100%, he adds a powerful punch to the middle of the Marlins order. If he's not, it's bad news for the Fish. Alfonzo's numbers are deceiving because of his painfully slow start. In September he's hitting .294/.402/.574. I'll call this one a toss-up.

Shortstop
Giants: Rich Aurilia (.277/.325/.410)
Marlins: Alex Gonzalez (.255/.312/.438)

Gonzalez struggles against righties, and at home. He'll swing at anything--not a good thing against the likes of Schmidt and Reuter. He's bouncing back from a horrible July & August. Aurilia's having a bad year at the plate, but still better than Gonzalez. September has been his best month, as well. Slight advantage to the Giants.

Catcher
Giants: Benito Santiago (.279/.329/.424)
Marlins: Ivan Rodriguez (.297/.369/.474)

Benito is fading fast, both at the plate and behind it. Pudge is having a pretty nice year, especially facing lefties at home. Hitting against right-handers, he's average. Advantage to the Marlins.

That adds up to three for the Giants, three for the Fish, and three that are too close to call. Of course, that means that the big difference between the teams is Barry. No surprise there. How about the starting pitching?

Starting Pitching

Game 1
Giants: Jason Schmidt (RHP, 17-5, 2.34 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
Marlins: Josh Beckett (RHP, 9-8, 3.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

Best starting pitcher in the National League vs. someone who's not. Schmidt leads a staff whose ERA is better than any other NL playoff team. Beckett's road ERA is 3.59. Schmidt's home ERA is 2.24. Advantage Giants.

Game 2
Giants: Sidney Ponson (RHP, 17-12, 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Marlins: Brad Penny (RHP, 14-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)

A knight of Aruba vs. someone who's not. Penny's road ERA is 4.62. Ponson's ERA at Pac Bell is over 5. Oops. No advantage either way.

Game 3
Giants: Kirk Rueter (LHP, 10-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)
Marlins: Mark Redman (LHP, 14-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

The luckiest man on the planet vs. someone who's not. Rueter's been on a hot streak his last five starts. He's much more effective (4.08 ERA) at Pac Bell, like most pitchers. However, the game will be in Florida, where Redman sports a nifty 2.88 ERA. Advantage Marlins.

Game 4
Giants: Jerome Williams (RHP, 7-5, 3.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Marlins: Dontrelle Willis (LHP, 13-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

Willis has been a phenom, but he's 2-4 in his last six decisions. Also, the Giants do not fear lefties. Finally, in my not so humble opinion, Williams is simply more talented. Advantage Giants.

Projection

Looks to me like the Giants should take Game 1. Game 2 worries me, but Ponson's last start was promising. I'd have Hermanson greased up and ready to go, just in case. If the Giants can win Games 1 and 2, they're set. Game 3 will likely go Florida's way, but the Giants mash lefties pretty well, so maybe not. I like the Giants' chances in Game 4, and they'd have Schmidt again in Game 5.

I don't think we're looking at a sweep, but I don't think we're looking at a 1997-style upset, either. Their pitching is better than Florida's; they have Bonds; they have home-field advantage; their offense is better suited to take advantage of Florida's pitching than vice versa.

I think the Giants will take it in four games.

Jefferson 10:55 AM

|