Thursday, May 01, 2003

 

Well, that was more like it. Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds put on a show last night. Hard to say which was more impressive, Schmidt's 3-hit, 12-K shutout or Barry's twin homers (and very nearly a third).

Let's start with Schmidt's performance. As impressive as his pitching line was (9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K), it doesn't show how thoroughly he kept the Cubs off balance. The Cubs put only 18 balls in play, and the only hard-hit ones were the three hits. The defense had a pretty easy night, though Jose Cruz Jr. did make a hell of a throw in the ninth to hold a Cub to a single. Schmidt threw a 94 mph fastball consistently the entire game, mixing in a wicked changeup for great effect. It was the type of dominating outing you expect out of a true #1 starter, like a Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez.

Is Schmidt a true #1 starter? People won't call him one until he leads a staff in victories and ERA, and this might be the year he does it. Here's the breakdown of the Giants starters so far:

Name		W   L   ERA   WHIP   K/9    BB/9

Schmidt	         3   0   1.77  1.12   10.09  3.28

Moss		4   0   2.35  1.43    4.70  5.57

Reuter		2   1   3.34  1.51    1.54  3.60

Ainsworth	         3   1   4.91  1.43    6.14  2.76

The only categories Schmidt doesn't lead are wins (which we can ignore as he missed a couple of starts for his mother's funeral) and walks per nine innings. So, after a handful of starts, Schmidt is the leader of the staff thus far. It's early, though. Over a whole season, how will Schmidt have to perform to be ranked with the big boys? Let's look at the 2002 stats of the guys who jump to mind whenever I think "#1 starter":

Name            W   L   ERA   WHIP   K/9    BB/9

R. Johnson     24   5   2.32  1.03   11.56  2.45

C. Schilling   23   7   3.23  0.97   10.97  1.14

P. Martinez    20   4   2.26  0.92   10.79  1.80

G. Maddux      16   6   2.62  1.20    5.33  2.03

Schmidt	      13   8   3.45  1.19    9.45  3.54

Schmidt is in that ballpark this season, as early as it is. If he can walk about one less hitter per nine innings, and keep his other stats at or above their current levels, and stay healthy, Schmidt could win 20 games this year. Schmidt has not proved himself to be a durable pitcher thus far in his career; that is probably the biggest concern. Everything else tells me that the man is shaping up to be one of the Big Boys. Remember, Sabean got him for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong--and he got half a season of John Vander Wal as well. This could be one of the best trades the Giants ever made, and I'm not forgetting Matt Williams for Jeff Kent and change.

Speaking of #1 pitchers, bad news for Randy Johnson. He's going to have his knee scoped, and will be out 3-6 weeks. This is his second trip to the disabled list already, both for the same knee. While he'll probably be in much better shape when he comes back, the D-Backs have to be hating life. Schilling has also made a trip to the DL for his appendectomy. Without those two Big Boys to anchor their rotation all year, Arizona will likely miss the playoffs.

Jefferson 10:46 AM

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