Sunday, April 20, 2003

 

Here's what was on the front page before I changed Skaldheim into a Blogger monstrosity:

April 19, 2003

Okay, I guess I am going to be turning this into a blog of sorts. If I get serious about this, I may change the site around radically. If anyone has recommendations, let me know.

This morning's Giants news is bad if you're Robb Nen. After undergoing a second surgical procedure on his shoulder, he's gone for the year. Sure, they're not saying it plainly, but if they "rush" him back in 4-5 months again, he won't be throwing until September. I don't see how he'll be Robb Nen, star closer, again until next year. Until then, the Giants will be without that Ace Closer that every team absolutely, positively needs. The Giants are therefore doomed to blowing incredible numbers of saves, losing a lot of those games, and finishing last in the division.

Yeah, right.

Borrowing a trick from Rob Neyer, (and with thanks to Baseball Reference) let's give you two stat lines for three Giants relief pitchers in 2002. We'll leave out the save totals. Let's see if you can tell me which one is the closer:

Player     G    ERA    W   L   IP     H    ER   BB   HR  SO

A          68   2.20   6   2   73.7   64   18   20   2   81

B          80   2.25   8   2   72.0   55   18   30   3   55

C          44   2.37   1   0   68.3   58   18   21   3   54 

Player A has a better strikeout/walk ratio, but Player B gave up fewer hits over more innings. Player C is similar to Player B, but walked as few as Player A. All three players allowed the same numbers of earned runs. Their ERAs are so close as to be essentially the same. Overall, you'd have to say it's a wash. You'd be happy having any of them coming out of the pen. Can you tell which of these three guys earned over $8 million for his performance, compared to the roughly $1.3 million for each of the others?

The answer is Player A. Robb Nen, your proven closer. Player B is Tim Worrell, who has been closing most of the games in Nen's absence. Player C is Jay Witasick, who is now a disabled San Diego Padre.

If Worrell can repeat his 2002 performance this year, then he will be a very capable, and maybe a complete, replacement for Robb Nen. This raises lots of interesting questions. Are the Giants paying Robb Nen too much for his 75 innings a year, or are they paying Tim Worrell too little? If the Giants had three guys in the pen last year like Nen, Worrell, and Witasick (not to mention Felix Rodriguez, who had a poor year in 2002 but is generally regarded as having "closer stuff"), then what makes Nen special? Only that he pitched the ninth inning. Worrell pitched the eighth inning, more often than not, and Witasick was the more nebulous "middle reliever." Isn't blowing a lead, in any inning, a bad thing? If so, then protecting a lead, in whatever inning, must be a good thing. I can buy that the pressure of the ninth inning is greater than that of, say, the 6th inning. But it's not seven times greater than the eighth inning. That's the only reason I can think for paying a closer seven times what you pay someone like Worrell.

Nen's contract dates back from 1998, which is pretty much a different era as far as salaries go. I think Worrell is probably underpaid at his rate, and that closers won't see $8-10 million deals very often in the future. But for this year, the Giants will probably do just fine with Worrell pitching the ninth. If he falters, they have Felix Rodriguez, who should be fully recovered from his finger injury last year. Joe Nathan has also impressed this year. You'd love to have Nen healthy and effective, but the Giants have enough arms that it won't be a major problem.

April 18, 2003

The San Francisco Giants are off to an amazing 14-2 start this season. It's their best start in 85 years, when the New York Giants went 18-1. They also won the last eight games of the 2002 regular season, so their regular season record is now 22 out of their last 24. This is pretty impressive, until you remember that the 1984 Detroit Tigers started the year 35-5. The Giants will have to win 21 of their next 24 to match that.

After the heartbreak of the 2002 World Series, this year's hot start is almost enough to give Giants fans what Alan Greenspan used to call "irrational exuberance." The '84 Tigers won the World Series, after all. But we don't have to look very far back to see how regular season dominance doesn't translate into World Series victories:

• 2002 New York Yankees: 103-58, AL East champs, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2002 Oakland Athletics, 103-59, AL West champs, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2002 Atlanta Braves, 101-59, NL East champs by 19 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 2001 Seattle Mariners, 116-46, AL West champs by 14 games, lost in ALCS
  
• 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks, 100-62, NL West champs by 14 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  
• 1999 Atlanta Braves, 103-59, NL East champs, swept in World Series by the Yankees
  
• 1998 Atlanta Braves, 106-56, NL East champs by 18 games, lost in NLCS
  
• 1998 Houston Astros, 102-60 NL Central champs by 12.5 games, lost in divisional playoffs
  

A quick start may help you blow through the regular season, but in the playoffs, the only wins that matter are the 11 you need to get the ring.

October 1, 2002

Another baseball bit for you today--a very quick take on this year's playoffs.
September 13, 2002

And now for something completely different. I still have no graphics, but I have something new for you to read! At long last, I am turning my vast and rusty writing skills towards one of my favorite things--baseball! Here's a little guide to Pacific Bell Park, wherein I blow my chances to get good seats next year.

Perhaps next week I might have a graphic to add to the front page. Just one. I can't overdo it, you know. It's bad for my health!

September 5, 2002

I was on vacation, so I'm a bit behind on posting new things. Today's new item is also concerning the RPG I'm running. This time, we turn to some common knowledge about dwarves.

August 15, 2002

I don't have a whole lot of days left in my tryout version of GoLive, so I hope to put up a few things before it expires. Too bad you can't buy GoLive as a separate package anymore. Adobe, can I just have it for free? No?? I suppose there's always BBEdit.

Please be assured that I'm not going to turn Skaldheim into a blog. But I will ramble a little bit.

You might remember this site once had graphics. Perhaps it will again, someday. For now, it's lean and mean, until I learn how to use the GIMP. For now, you'll have to settle for some boring plain HTML files. Today's selection are a few brief descriptions of early playing sessions in my Tales of T'Regnor D&D campaign:

Session 1 • Session 2 • Session 3 • Session 4 • Session 5

August 10, 2002

Well, time to make a fresh start and do something completely new with this site. Who knows when I'll get it done???

Anyway, when I do get going, I want to put up occasions bits of whatever from whatever I'm working on. Right now, here's some things from an RPG I'm currently running:

Badgers as a PC race

Deities of Ardovia

Jefferson 8:14 PM